As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.8% in Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31? — $9.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.7 pts; past week: +2.2 pts.
Since October 02, 2026, No has traded between 93.0% and 98.6%. It opened at 93.0% and last traded at 95.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 98.6% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.8% |
No is favored at 95.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 95.8% | +0.7 pts | $9.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 4.2% | -0.7 pts | $9.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.3K has been traded on this event in total, $711 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by October 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,685 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grounded-Depression | No | 2,685 | $2.6K |
| Important-Lemon | Yes | 2,664 | $113 |
| Fearful-Independence | No | 1,366 | $1.3K |
| 0xef97d61b… | No | 1,143 | $1.1K |
| Jagged-Dioxide | Yes | 1,034 | $44 |
| Valid-Platter | Yes | 939 | $40 |
| Puzzled-Bed | Yes | 561 | $24 |
| Pessimistic-Omega | No | 500 | $479 |
| Stable-Petal | Yes | 453 | $19 |
| Avaricious-Sidewalk-Preserves | No | 408 | $391 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:07 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.8% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 11:05 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.6% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.3% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 11:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.2% | $239 |
| Oct 24, 11:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $154 |
| Oct 23, 08:15 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $214 |
| Oct 23, 01:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.2% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 01:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.1% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 06:10 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.4% | $10 |
| Oct 22, 02:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.8%. Next is Yes at 4.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/flavio-bolsonaro-charged-or-arrested-by-october-31-20261001003357876?via=bro
$9.3K in total volume, with $711 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 95.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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