Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 9.5% in Foreign intervention in Gaza by..? — $1.14M traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $17.6K.
Leading outcome
December 31
10%
A 9.5% price implies roughly a 10-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −5.5 pts7D −1.0 pts30D −4.5 pts
Bid
9¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since June 30, 2026: 9.5% – 55.5% · Opened at 50.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
Category
Politics, Gaza, Israel, Geopolitics, World, Middle East
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$1.14M
Volume (24h)
$17.6K
Liquidity
$20.8K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31 — 9.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 9.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.5 pts; past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -4.5 pts.

Since June 30, 2026, December 31 has traded between 9.5% and 55.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 9.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202610.5%
Oct 18, 202612.5%
Oct 19, 202614.5%
Oct 20, 202614.5%
Oct 22, 202615.0%
Oct 23, 202615.0%
Oct 24, 20269.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 9.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3110¢9.5%-5.5 pts$208.2K18.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 9¢ / ask 10¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$1.14M has been traded on this event in total, $17.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify. Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify. Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 17,986 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Illustrious-SpectaclesYes17,986$1.7K
Sweet-CutoverNo13,114$11.9K
Smoggy-SunglassesNo7,420$6.7K
Comfortable-SpanNo5,837$5.3K
Serene-SculptingNo5,427$4.9K
Violet-Sisterinlaw-TailNo3,524$3.2K
Hateful-GenerationYes3,000$285
Cheerful-EphemeraYes2,701$257
Clueless-Dugout-TomtomYes2,582$245
Peppery-CapitalYes2,573$244

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $2.1K at 93.2%SELL No — $1.1K at 94.0%BUY No — $346 at 90.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 08:10 AM ETNoBUY90.0%$27
Oct 24, 08:10 AM ETNoBUY90.0%$180
Oct 24, 07:49 AM ETNoBUY90.0%$269
Oct 24, 07:47 AM ETNoBUY90.0%$9
Oct 24, 07:44 AM ETNoBUY90.0%$346
Oct 24, 07:42 AM ETNoSELL88.0%$9
Oct 24, 07:40 AM ETNoSELL88.0%$26
Oct 24, 07:38 AM ETNoBUY91.0%$19
Oct 24, 07:38 AM ETNoBUY90.0%$27
Oct 24, 07:38 AM ETNoSELL88.0%$35

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Foreign intervention in Gaza by..??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 9.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Foreign intervention in Gaza by..??

$1.14M in total volume, with $17.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Foreign intervention in Gaza by..? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 9.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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