As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 9.5% in Foreign intervention in Gaza by..? — $1.14M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 9.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.5 pts; past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -4.5 pts.
Since June 30, 2026, December 31 has traded between 9.5% and 55.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 9.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 10.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 12.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 15.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 15.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 9.5% |
December 31 is favored at 9.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 10¢ | 9.5% | -5.5 pts | $208.2K | 18.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 9¢ / ask 10¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.14M has been traded on this event in total, $17.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify. Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify. Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 17,986 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illustrious-Spectacles | Yes | 17,986 | $1.7K |
| Sweet-Cutover | No | 13,114 | $11.9K |
| Smoggy-Sunglasses | No | 7,420 | $6.7K |
| Comfortable-Span | No | 5,837 | $5.3K |
| Serene-Sculpting | No | 5,427 | $4.9K |
| Violet-Sisterinlaw-Tail | No | 3,524 | $3.2K |
| Hateful-Generation | Yes | 3,000 | $285 |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | Yes | 2,701 | $257 |
| Clueless-Dugout-Tomtom | Yes | 2,582 | $245 |
| Peppery-Capital | Yes | 2,573 | $244 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $27 |
| Oct 24, 08:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $180 |
| Oct 24, 07:49 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $269 |
| Oct 24, 07:47 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 07:44 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $346 |
| Oct 24, 07:42 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 07:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $26 |
| Oct 24, 07:38 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 07:38 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $27 |
| Oct 24, 07:38 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $35 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 9.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by?via=bro
$1.14M in total volume, with $17.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 9.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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