Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 86.0% in France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30? — $26.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $2.5K.
Leading outcome
No
86%
A 86.0% price implies roughly a 86-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts
No86.0%
Yes14.0%
Bid
13¢
Ask
15¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since October 23, 2026: 85.5% – 86.5% · Opened at 85.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?
Category
World, Europe, France, protest, Politics, Protests, France Riots, international affairs
Scheduled end
November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$26.2K
Volume (24h)
$2.5K
Liquidity
$35.2K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 86.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 86.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts.

Since October 23, 2026, No has traded between 85.5% and 86.5%. It opened at 85.5% and last traded at 86.5%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 86.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No86¢86.0%+0.5 pts$26.2K100.0%
Yes14¢14.0%-0.5 pts$26.2K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 13¢ / ask 15¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$26.2K has been traded on this event in total, $2.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French government explicitly claims that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest that began in France on October 17, 2026, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Such a claim requires an on-the-record public statement issued by an authorized person or entity representing the French government, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest. A statement from a lawmaker speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify. Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. Statements that do not attribute deliberate intent to the authorities of a foreign country (e.g., "foreign actors exploited the unrest to spread disinformation") will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,500 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Pale-VictoryYes2,500$350
Devoted-RouteYes2,115$296
Verifiable-ObstacleNo1,735$1.5K
Exhausted-StringNo1,053$905
Unaware-JackalNo1,025$882
Smooth-EvolutionNo700$602
Perfumed-MoatYes696$97
Essential-DiaristYes511$72
Grubby-StepuncleYes404$57
Winged-MakerNo395$340

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $602 at 86.0%SELL No — $270 at 86.0%BUY No — $258 at 86.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:20 PM ETNoBUY87.0%$3
Oct 24, 04:20 PM ETYesBUY15.0%$61
Oct 24, 11:01 AM ETYesSELL13.8%$6
Oct 24, 09:32 AM ETYesBUY15.0%$16
Oct 24, 09:32 AM ETNoSELL86.0%$270
Oct 24, 09:28 AM ETYesSELL13.0%$6
Oct 24, 09:28 AM ETYesSELL13.0%$6
Oct 24, 06:26 AM ETNoBUY86.0%$602
Oct 24, 06:26 AM ETNoBUY87.0%$44
Oct 24, 06:02 AM ETYesBUY15.0%$15

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 86.0%. Next is Yes at 14.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/france-accuses-foreign-country-of-provoking-unrest-by-november-30-20261021154154939?via=bro

How much money has been traded on France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30??

$26.2K in total volume, with $2.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 86.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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