As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 86.0% in France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30? — $26.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 86.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, No has traded between 85.5% and 86.5%. It opened at 85.5% and last traded at 86.5%.
No is favored at 86.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 86¢ | 86.0% | +0.5 pts | $26.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 14¢ | 14.0% | -0.5 pts | $26.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 13¢ / ask 15¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$26.2K has been traded on this event in total, $2.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French government explicitly claims that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest that began in France on October 17, 2026, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Such a claim requires an on-the-record public statement issued by an authorized person or entity representing the French government, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest. A statement from a lawmaker speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify. Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. Statements that do not attribute deliberate intent to the authorities of a foreign country (e.g., "foreign actors exploited the unrest to spread disinformation") will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,500 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pale-Victory | Yes | 2,500 | $350 |
| Devoted-Route | Yes | 2,115 | $296 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 1,735 | $1.5K |
| Exhausted-String | No | 1,053 | $905 |
| Unaware-Jackal | No | 1,025 | $882 |
| Smooth-Evolution | No | 700 | $602 |
| Perfumed-Moat | Yes | 696 | $97 |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 511 | $72 |
| Grubby-Stepuncle | Yes | 404 | $57 |
| Winged-Maker | No | 395 | $340 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $61 |
| Oct 24, 11:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.8% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 09:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 09:32 AM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $270 |
| Oct 24, 09:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 09:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 06:26 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $602 |
| Oct 24, 06:26 AM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $44 |
| Oct 24, 06:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $15 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 86.0%. Next is Yes at 14.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/france-accuses-foreign-country-of-provoking-unrest-by-november-30-20261021154154939?via=bro
$26.2K in total volume, with $2.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 86.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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