As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 2.9% in France declares state of siege (martial law) by...? — $254.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 2.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts.
Since October 18, 2026, December 31 has traded between 2.9% and 3.6%. It opened at 2.9% and last traded at 2.9%.
December 31 is favored at 2.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 3¢ | 2.9% | -0.5 pts | $83.7K | 32.9% |
| November 15 | 1¢ | 1.1% | -1.1 pts | $102.2K | 40.2% |
| October 31 | 1¢ | 0.9% | -0.3 pts | $68.5K | 26.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$254.5K has been traded on this event in total, $24.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,097 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smooth-Evolution | No | 5,097 | $4.9K |
| Scarce-Footnote | No | 3,527 | $3.4K |
| Unsightly-Puma | Yes | 2,300 | $68 |
| Prickly-Signup | No | 2,281 | $2.2K |
| Monstrous-Dew | Yes | 2,238 | $66 |
| Accurate-Spirit | No | 1,500 | $1.5K |
| Devoted-Route | Yes | 1,190 | $35 |
| Mediocre-Wren | Yes | 1,186 | $35 |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 914 | $27 |
| Studious-Outlaw | Yes | 729 | $22 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.6% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 04:14 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.1% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.2% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.2% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.2% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.6% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.7% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 04:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.1% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 04:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.5% | $772 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 2.9%. Next is November 15 at 1.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/france-declares-state-of-siege-byptptpt?via=bro
$254.5K in total volume, with $24.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 2.9% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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