Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 2.9% in France declares state of siege (martial law) by...? — $254.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $24.6K.
Leading outcome
December 31
3%
A 2.9% price implies roughly a 3-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts
December 312.9%
November 151.1%
Bid
2¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since October 18, 2026: 2.9% – 3.6% · Opened at 2.9%

Market facts

Event data
Event
France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
Category
World, Europe, France, Politics, Protests, France Riots
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$254.5K
Volume (24h)
$24.6K
Liquidity
$157.3K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31 — 2.9%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 2.9%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts.

Since October 18, 2026, December 31 has traded between 2.9% and 3.6%. It opened at 2.9% and last traded at 2.9%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 2.9%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 313¢2.9%-0.5 pts$83.7K32.9%
November 151¢1.1%-1.1 pts$102.2K40.2%
October 311¢0.9%-0.3 pts$68.5K26.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$254.5K has been traded on this event in total, $24.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,097 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Smooth-EvolutionNo5,097$4.9K
Scarce-FootnoteNo3,527$3.4K
Unsightly-PumaYes2,300$68
Prickly-SignupNo2,281$2.2K
Monstrous-DewYes2,238$66
Accurate-SpiritNo1,500$1.5K
Devoted-RouteYes1,190$35
Mediocre-WrenYes1,186$35
Essential-DiaristYes914$27
Studious-OutlawYes729$22

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1.9K at 95.6%BUY No — $1.2K at 96.1%BUY No — $1.1K at 98.3%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:57 PM ETNoBUY97.6%$5
Oct 24, 04:14 PM ETYesSELL2.0%$4
Oct 24, 04:13 PM ETYesSELL2.1%$1
Oct 24, 04:13 PM ETYesSELL2.2%$0
Oct 24, 04:12 PM ETYesSELL2.2%$0
Oct 24, 04:12 PM ETYesSELL2.2%$4
Oct 24, 04:12 PM ETYesSELL2.6%$1
Oct 24, 04:11 PM ETYesSELL2.7%$5
Oct 24, 04:11 PM ETYesSELL3.1%$9
Oct 24, 04:11 PM ETNoBUY96.5%$772

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of France declares state of siege (martial law) by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 2.9%. Next is November 15 at 1.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/france-declares-state-of-siege-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on France declares state of siege (martial law) by...??

$254.5K in total volume, with $24.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does France declares state of siege (martial law) by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 2.9% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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