As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.9% in France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027? — $1.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.2 pts.
Since October 22, 2026, No has traded between 93.2% and 95.0%. It opened at 95.0% and last traded at 94.9%.
No is favored at 94.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 94.9% | +2.2 pts | $1.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 5.1% | -2.2 pts | $1.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.4K has been traded on this event in total, $597 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French government fails to make a scheduled payment on any French government note, bond, or bill at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any French sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the French Treasury (Agence France Trésor), Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 275 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smooth-Snowsuit | Yes | 275 | $14 |
| Bouncy-Limestone | No | 230 | $218 |
| Pointless-Exasperation | No | 208 | $198 |
| Sympathetic-Count | No | 140 | $133 |
| Aromatic-Pattern-Hood | Yes | 136 | $7 |
| Crafty-Greens | No | 122 | $116 |
| Present-Lambkin | Yes | 117 | $6 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 115 | $109 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 76 | $4 |
| Evil-Condor | Yes | 63 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.5% | $114 |
| Oct 24, 10:59 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.6% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 10:59 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.4% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 08:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 07:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.9% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 06:48 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.1% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 02:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 01:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.2% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 05:51 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.3% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.9%. Next is Yes at 5.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/france-defaults-on-debt-by-december-31-2027?via=bro
$1.4K in total volume, with $597 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.9% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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