As of October 24, 2026, 07:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Marine Le Pen at 82.5% in French Presidential Election First Round Winner — $67.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Marine Le Pen, is priced at 82.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: -3.0 pts.
Since October 12, 2026, Marine Le Pen has traded between 81.5% and 87.5%. It opened at 81.5% and last traded at 82.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 82.5% |
Marine Le Pen is favored at 82.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 82¢ | 82.5% | -1.0 pts | $24.6K | 36.6% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 6¢ | 6.3% | -0.4 pts | $12.3K | 18.2% |
| David Lisnard | 5¢ | 5.0% | +2.2 pts | $5.0K | 7.4% |
| Édouard Philippe | 4¢ | 3.9% | -0.1 pts | $4.9K | 7.2% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 2¢ | 1.5% | — | $4.8K | 7.1% |
| Jordan Bardella | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $4.2K | 6.2% |
| François Hollande | 0¢ | 0.5% | +0.4 pts | $1.3K | 2.0% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $1.8K | 2.6% |
| Dominique de Villepin | 0¢ | 0.5% | +0.4 pts | $1.5K | 2.2% |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $1.6K | 2.4% |
| François Ruffin | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $1.8K | 2.6% |
| Gabriel Attal | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $694 | 1.0% |
| Sarah Knafo | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $719 | 1.1% |
| Christine Lagarde | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $699 | 1.0% |
| Éric Zemmour | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $799 | 1.2% |
| Marine Tondelier | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $715 | 1.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 82¢ / ask 83¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$67.2K has been traded on this event in total, $3.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 43 markets.
This market is scheduled to end April 18, 2027, 07:59 PM ET.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,794 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 4,794 | $839 |
| Hideous-Racer | Yes | 1,833 | $1.5K |
| Prickly-Signup | Yes | 1,752 | $1.4K |
| True-Futon | No | 1,686 | $295 |
| Mundane-Hood | Yes | 1,678 | $1.4K |
| Liquid-Argument | No | 1,016 | $178 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 660 | $545 |
| Determined-Mug | Yes | 650 | $536 |
| Fearful-Independence | Yes | 405 | $334 |
| Long-Term-Rocketship | No | 340 | $59 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:33 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 82.0% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 06:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 17.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:32 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 82.0% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 06:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 18.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 06:32 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 82.0% | $49 |
| Oct 24, 06:32 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 83.0% | $88 |
| Oct 24, 06:21 PM ET | No | BUY | 17.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 06:21 PM ET | No | BUY | 17.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:21 PM ET | No | BUY | 17.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 06:21 PM ET | No | BUY | 17.0% | $24 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Marine Le Pen at 82.5%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/french-presidential-election-first-round-winner?via=bro
$67.2K in total volume, with $3.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 43 markets.
The market is scheduled to end April 18, 2027, 07:59 PM ET.
Marine Le Pen, priced at 82.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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