As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Dominique de Villepin at 73.5% in French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026? — $117.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Dominique de Villepin, is priced at 73.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: +17.5 pts; past month: +5.5 pts.
Since April 22, 2026, Dominique de Villepin has traded between 26.5% and 78.0%. It opened at 26.5% and last traded at 66.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 56.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 54.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 54.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 70.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 68.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 66.5% |
Dominique de Villepin is favored at 73.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominique de Villepin | 74¢ | 73.5% | -1.0 pts | $2.4K | 2.0% |
| François Hollande | 25¢ | 25.0% | -0.5 pts | $3.4K | 2.9% |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 14¢ | 13.5% | — | $3.0K | 2.6% |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 8¢ | 8.3% | — | $1.5K | 1.2% |
| Élisabeth Borne | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $3.8K | 3.2% |
| Michel Barnier | 6¢ | 6.0% | — | $1.1K | 0.9% |
| Manuel Bompard | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $3.7K | 3.1% |
| Gérald Darmanin | 5¢ | 5.5% | — | $1.8K | 1.5% |
| François Bayrou | 4¢ | 3.8% | +0.4 pts | $3.6K | 3.1% |
| Valérie Pécresse | 3¢ | 3.5% | — | $2.0K | 1.7% |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 3¢ | 3.3% | — | $7.8K | 6.7% |
| Jordan Bardella | 3¢ | 3.1% | -0.4 pts | $11.0K | 9.3% |
| Jean Castex | 3¢ | 2.5% | -0.1 pts | $1.5K | 1.3% |
| Mathilde Panot | 2¢ | 2.4% | -0.1 pts | $19.6K | 16.7% |
| Carole Delga | 2¢ | 2.3% | — | $2.3K | 1.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 23¢ (bid 62¢ / ask 85¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$117.5K has been traded on this event in total, $1.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 15 markets.
This market is scheduled to end April 18, 2027, 07:59 PM ET.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 320 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural-Intensity | No | 320 | $85 |
| Noisy-Tog | Yes | 207 | $152 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 128 | $94 |
| Responsible-Legume | No | 126 | $33 |
| Tense-Precedent | Yes | 100 | $74 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 67 | $18 |
| Shy-Motel | No | 55 | $15 |
| 0x193df6f9… | Yes | 47 | $35 |
| Sociable-Childhood | Yes | 38 | $28 |
| Which-Excess | Yes | 26 | $19 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 10:07 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.6% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 06:08 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.2% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 12:36 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.3% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 12:43 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.1% | $5 |
| Oct 18, 09:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.3% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 07:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.8% | $48 |
| Oct 14, 01:04 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.7% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 01:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.8% | $71 |
| Oct 12, 08:58 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $1 |
| Oct 12, 10:07 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.9% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Dominique de Villepin at 73.5%. Next is François Hollande at 25.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-run-in-2026?via=bro
$117.5K in total volume, with $1.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 15 markets.
The market is scheduled to end April 18, 2027, 07:59 PM ET.
Dominique de Villepin, priced at 73.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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