As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 39.5% in Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...? — $3.00M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 39.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.0 pts.
Since October 05, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 24.5% and 58.0%. It opened at 24.5% and last traded at 39.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 41.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 41.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 42.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 38.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 39.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 39.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 39.5% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 39.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 40¢ | 39.5% | — | $9.2K | 0.3% |
| June 30, 2027 | 24¢ | 24.5% | -0.5 pts | $5.3K | 0.2% |
| March 31, 2027 | 8¢ | 8.5% | -8.5 pts | $27.1K | 0.9% |
| December 31, 2026 | 6¢ | 5.5% | -1.0 pts | $2.36M | 78.6% |
| November 30, 2026 | 3¢ | 3.1% | — | $37.7K | 1.3% |
| October 31, 2026 | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.4 pts | $169.6K | 5.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 39¢ / ask 40¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.00M has been traded on this event in total, $13.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,214 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 1,214 | $735 |
| Helpful-Wasp | Yes | 1,056 | $417 |
| Monthly-Paranoia | No | 891 | $539 |
| Common-Nitrogen | No | 890 | $539 |
| Aromatic-Carter | Yes | 718 | $284 |
| Silent-Rowboat | Yes | 650 | $257 |
| Daring-Pirate | Yes | 411 | $162 |
| Soulful-Remains-Chorus | No | 285 | $172 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 278 | $110 |
| Monstrous-Dew | Yes | 215 | $85 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 01:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.4% | $100 |
| Oct 24, 12:28 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $45 |
| Oct 24, 12:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $1.9K |
| Oct 24, 10:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:53 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $250 |
| Oct 24, 06:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 06:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 06:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $383 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 39.5%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 24.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027?via=bro
$3.00M in total volume, with $13.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 39.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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