Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 7.5% in Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___? — $20.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $4.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2026
8%
A 7.5% price implies roughly a 8-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D −1.0 pts30D −8.5 pts
December 31, 20267.5%
October 31, 20262.8%
Bid
7¢
Ask
8¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 13, 2026: 6.0% – 50.5% · Opened at 50.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?
Category
AI, Math, Culture, Science, AI Benchmarks
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$20.9K
Volume (24h)
$4
Liquidity
$2.1K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31, 2026 — 7.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 7.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -8.5 pts.

Since August 13, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 6.0% and 50.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 8.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 20268.5%
Oct 17, 20268.5%
Oct 18, 20268.5%
Oct 19, 20268.5%
Oct 20, 20268.5%
Oct 22, 20268.0%
Oct 23, 20268.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2026 is favored at 7.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 20268¢7.5%-0.5 pts$14.8K71.0%
October 31, 20263¢2.8%—$6.0K29.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 8¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$20.9K has been traded on this event in total, $4 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a qualifying mathematical result unconditionally establishes that at least 70% of the nontrivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function lie on the critical line, or establishes a stronger result, including a complete proof or disproof of the Riemann Hypothesis, by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "unconditionally" means that the qualifying result may not depend on assuming the Riemann Hypothesis or any other unproven conjecture necessary for the stated threshold to hold. A result establishing any unconditional lower bound of 70% or greater will qualify. A result establishing a higher percentage, proving that 100% of the relevant zeros lie on the critical line, or otherwise completely proving or disproving the Riemann Hypothesis will also qualify. Computational verification that additional individual zeros lie on the critical line will not qualify on its own, regardless of the number of zeros checked. Conditional results, heuristic arguments, claimed proofs without sufficient verification, partial results that do not meet the 70% threshold, or improvements that remain below 70% will not qualify. A qualifying result does not need to have completed peer review or been formally published in an academic journal by the market deadline. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,608 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Barren-LaughterNo1,608$1.5K
Light-MayonnaiseYes1,216$91
Wobbly-ChainNo1,001$926
Robust-TwinsYes435$33
Somber-IceYes336$25
Snappy-RoosterYes326$24
Playful-CirculationNo241$223
Euphoric-FlanYes231$17
Glistening-LockYes203$15
Square-SandNo197$182

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $800 at 95.6%BUY No — $425 at 85.0%BUY No — $399 at 85.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 01:06 AM ETYesSELL7.0%$0
Oct 23, 08:10 AM ETNoBUY93.0%$2
Oct 19, 05:58 PM ETYesSELL2.0%$0
Oct 19, 03:14 PM ETYesSELL1.8%$0
Oct 19, 03:13 PM ETNoBUY98.2%$39
Oct 19, 03:13 PM ETNoBUY95.8%$57
Oct 18, 10:19 PM ETNoSELL94.0%$14
Oct 18, 12:35 AM ETNoSELL95.1%$44
Oct 12, 11:05 AM ETYesSELL7.0%$1
Oct 12, 10:52 AM ETYesBUY8.0%$2

Related markets

More AI

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 2028 29.5% · 24H VOL $87.4K

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 7.5%. Next is October 31, 2026 at 2.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/further-substantive-progress-on-the-riemann-hypothesis-by-20260812121554604?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___??

$20.9K in total volume, with $4 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2026, priced at 7.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.