As of October 24, 2026, 08:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 7.5% in Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___? — $20.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 7.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -8.5 pts.
Since August 13, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 6.0% and 50.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 8.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 8.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 8.0% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 7.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 8¢ | 7.5% | -0.5 pts | $14.8K | 71.0% |
| October 31, 2026 | 3¢ | 2.8% | — | $6.0K | 29.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 8¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$20.9K has been traded on this event in total, $4 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a qualifying mathematical result unconditionally establishes that at least 70% of the nontrivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function lie on the critical line, or establishes a stronger result, including a complete proof or disproof of the Riemann Hypothesis, by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "unconditionally" means that the qualifying result may not depend on assuming the Riemann Hypothesis or any other unproven conjecture necessary for the stated threshold to hold. A result establishing any unconditional lower bound of 70% or greater will qualify. A result establishing a higher percentage, proving that 100% of the relevant zeros lie on the critical line, or otherwise completely proving or disproving the Riemann Hypothesis will also qualify. Computational verification that additional individual zeros lie on the critical line will not qualify on its own, regardless of the number of zeros checked. Conditional results, heuristic arguments, claimed proofs without sufficient verification, partial results that do not meet the 70% threshold, or improvements that remain below 70% will not qualify. A qualifying result does not need to have completed peer review or been formally published in an academic journal by the market deadline. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,608 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barren-Laughter | No | 1,608 | $1.5K |
| Light-Mayonnaise | Yes | 1,216 | $91 |
| Wobbly-Chain | No | 1,001 | $926 |
| Robust-Twins | Yes | 435 | $33 |
| Somber-Ice | Yes | 336 | $25 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 326 | $24 |
| Playful-Circulation | No | 241 | $223 |
| Euphoric-Flan | Yes | 231 | $17 |
| Glistening-Lock | Yes | 203 | $15 |
| Square-Sand | No | 197 | $182 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:06 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 08:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 05:58 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 03:14 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.8% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 03:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $39 |
| Oct 19, 03:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.8% | $57 |
| Oct 18, 10:19 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $14 |
| Oct 18, 12:35 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.1% | $44 |
| Oct 12, 11:05 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 12, 10:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 7.5%. Next is October 31, 2026 at 2.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/further-substantive-progress-on-the-riemann-hypothesis-by-20260812121554604?via=bro
$20.9K in total volume, with $4 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 7.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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