As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Adama Barrow at 65.5% in Gambia Presidential Election Winner — $13.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Adama Barrow, is priced at 65.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -8.0 pts; past month: -6.5 pts.
Since September 08, 2026, Adama Barrow has traded between 56.5% and 76.0%. It opened at 56.5% and last traded at 65.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 75.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 73.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 64.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 65.5% |
Adama Barrow is favored at 65.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adama Barrow | 66¢ | 65.5% | — | $7.9K | 59.5% |
| Person A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ousainou Darboe | 24¢ | 24.0% | -1.5 pts | $2.7K | 20.7% |
| Bakary K. Badjie | 2¢ | 2.3% | -0.1 pts | $238 | 1.8% |
| Talib Ahmed Bensouda | 2¢ | 1.8% | — | $691 | 5.2% |
| Essa Faal | 1¢ | 1.1% | +0.1 pts | $449 | 3.4% |
| Mama Kandeh | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $934 | 7.1% |
| Mohamed Al Amin Bah | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $313 | 2.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 65¢ / ask 66¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$13.2K has been traded on this event in total, $6 of it in the last 24 hours, across 34 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 05, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in The Gambia on December 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Gambian presidential election. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by the Independent Electoral Commission of The Gambia (https://www.iec.gm/).
Resolution source: https://www.iec.gm/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,002 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crazy-Fishmonger | No | 1,002 | $346 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 857 | $296 |
| Unfit-Hardboard | Yes | 394 | $258 |
| Treasured-Liner-Cheddar | Yes | 223 | $146 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 200 | $131 |
| Gifted-Rancher | Yes | 200 | $131 |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 189 | $124 |
| Monstrous-Dew | Yes | 160 | $105 |
| Classic-Parallelogram | Yes | 140 | $92 |
| Dull-Universe | Yes | 128 | $84 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 11:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 35.0% | $18 |
| Oct 23, 08:29 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 08:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.2% | $36 |
| Oct 23, 08:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.3% | $65 |
| Oct 22, 01:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 12:34 PM ET | No | SELL | 36.0% | $11 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 12:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 12:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Adama Barrow at 65.5%. Next is Person A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gambia-presidential-election-winner?via=bro
$13.2K in total volume, with $6 traded in the last 24 hours across 34 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 05, 2026, 06:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.iec.gm/.
Adama Barrow, priced at 65.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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