As of October 24, 2026, 06:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 15 at 65.5% in GitHub.com critical incident by...? — $2.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 15, is priced at 65.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -18.0 pts.
Since October 22, 2026, November 15 has traded between 52.0% and 81.5%. It opened at 52.0% and last traded at 65.5%.
November 15 is favored at 65.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 15 | 66¢ | 65.5% | -18.0 pts | $1.0K | 41.9% |
| October 31 | 33¢ | 33.0% | -20.5 pts | $1.4K | 58.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 13¢ (bid 59¢ / ask 72¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.5K has been traded on this event in total, $1.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.githubstatus.com/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 299 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unique-Primary | No | 299 | $103 |
| Threadbare-Alteration | Yes | 291 | $191 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 239 | $83 |
| Hideous-Racer | Yes | 200 | $131 |
| Rude-Encyclopedia | Yes | 98 | $64 |
| Evil-Row | No | 67 | $23 |
| Rowdy-Tenement | Yes | 30 | $20 |
| Giving-Dud-Personal | Yes | 25 | $17 |
| Skeletal-Liver | Yes | 20 | $13 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | No | 20 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 26.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 67.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 11:16 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 59.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 10:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 10:26 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 73.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 10:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 72.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 09:48 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 73.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 09:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 09:10 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $13 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 15 at 65.5%. Next is October 31 at 33.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/github-com-critical-incident-byptptpt-20261022?via=bro
$2.5K in total volume, with $1.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.githubstatus.com/.
November 15, priced at 65.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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