Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

GitHub.com critical incident by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 15 at 65.5% in GitHub.com critical incident by...? — $2.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.4K.
Leading outcome
November 15
66%
A 65.5% price implies roughly a 66-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −18.0 pts
November 1565.5%
October 3133.0%
Bid
59¢
Ask
72¢
Spread
13¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 22, 2026: 52.0% – 81.5% · Opened at 52.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
GitHub.com critical incident by...?
Category
Tech, Coding, GitHub, outage, Recurring, microsoft
Scheduled end
November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$2.5K
Volume (24h)
$1.4K
Liquidity
$476
Markets
2
Leading outcome
November 15 — 65.5%
Resolution source
https://www.githubstatus.com/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, November 15, is priced at 65.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -18.0 pts.

Since October 22, 2026, November 15 has traded between 52.0% and 81.5%. It opened at 52.0% and last traded at 65.5%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

November 15 is favored at 65.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
November 1566¢65.5%-18.0 pts$1.0K41.9%
October 3133¢33.0%-20.5 pts$1.4K58.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 13¢ (bid 59¢ / ask 72¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$2.5K has been traded on this event in total, $1.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.githubstatus.com/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 299 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Unique-PrimaryNo299$103
Threadbare-AlterationYes291$191
Belated-GlueNo239$83
Hideous-RacerYes200$131
Rude-EncyclopediaYes98$64
Evil-RowNo67$23
Rowdy-TenementYes30$20
Giving-Dud-PersonalYes25$17
Skeletal-LiverYes20$13
Charming-Kidney-ImaginationNo20$7

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $187 at 52.1%BUY No — $75 at 25.1%BUY No — $54 at 73.6%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:19 PM ETNoBUY26.0%$5
Oct 24, 01:13 PM ETYesBUY67.0%$13
Oct 24, 11:16 AM ETYesSELL59.0%$1
Oct 24, 10:47 AM ETYesBUY33.0%$5
Oct 24, 10:47 AM ETYesBUY33.0%$5
Oct 24, 10:26 AM ETYesBUY73.0%$4
Oct 24, 10:09 AM ETYesSELL72.0%$5
Oct 24, 09:48 AM ETYesBUY73.0%$10
Oct 24, 09:27 AM ETYesBUY30.0%$6
Oct 24, 09:10 AM ETYesBUY33.0%$13

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of GitHub.com critical incident by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 15 at 65.5%. Next is October 31 at 33.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/github-com-critical-incident-byptptpt-20261022?via=bro

How much money has been traded on GitHub.com critical incident by...??

$2.5K in total volume, with $1.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does GitHub.com critical incident by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.githubstatus.com/.

What is the most likely outcome of GitHub.com critical incident by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

November 15, priced at 65.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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