As of October 24, 2026, 08:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 27.0% in GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...? — $2.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 27.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +9.0 pts; past week: +10.0 pts.
Since October 08, 2026, October 31 has traded between 14.0% and 50.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 41.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 16.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 41.5% |
October 31 is favored at 27.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 27¢ | 27.0% | +9.0 pts | $1.5K | 58.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 32¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 43¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub's Git Operations service experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as “critical” and lists Git Operations among the incident's affected components ones the incident is marked “Resolved”. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only an impact of Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. “Degraded Performance,” “Partial Outage,” or “Major Outage”) will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.githubstatus.com/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 174 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sudden-Breakpoint | No | 174 | $127 |
| Skeletal-Liver | Yes | 100 | $27 |
| Green-Discovery | Yes | 60 | $16 |
| Unsteady-Porthole-Hummus | No | 60 | $44 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 41 | $11 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 40 | $11 |
| Gripping-Abolishment | No | 40 | $29 |
| Clueless-Dugout-Tomtom | No | 35 | $26 |
| Mad-Judge | Yes | 33 | $9 |
| Glossy-Speakerphone | Yes | 20 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 05:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 12:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.6% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 12:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 12:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 12:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $8 |
| Oct 21, 10:59 PM ET | No | SELL | 76.0% | $15 |
| Oct 21, 10:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 09:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $4 |
| Oct 20, 03:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $3 |
| Oct 20, 08:47 AM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 27.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/github-git-operations-critical-incident-byptptpt-20261008?via=bro
$2.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.githubstatus.com/.
October 31, priced at 27.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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