Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 27.0% in GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...? — $2.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
October 31
27%
A 27.0% price implies roughly a 27-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +9.0 pts7D +10.0 pts
Bid
11¢
Ask
43¢
Spread
32¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 08, 2026: 14.0% – 50.0% · Opened at 50.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...?
Category
Tech, Coding, GitHub, outage, Recurring, microsoft
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$2.5K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$101
Markets
1
Leading outcome
October 31 — 27.0%
Resolution source
https://www.githubstatus.com/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 27.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +9.0 pts; past week: +10.0 pts.

Since October 08, 2026, October 31 has traded between 14.0% and 50.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 41.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202618.0%
Oct 18, 202614.0%
Oct 19, 202620.5%
Oct 20, 202616.0%
Oct 23, 202618.0%
Oct 24, 202628.5%
Oct 24, 202641.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 31 is favored at 27.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 3127¢27.0%+9.0 pts$1.5K58.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 32¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 43¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$2.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub's Git Operations service experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as “critical” and lists Git Operations among the incident's affected components ones the incident is marked “Resolved”. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only an impact of Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. “Degraded Performance,” “Partial Outage,” or “Major Outage”) will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.githubstatus.com/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 174 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Sudden-BreakpointNo174$127
Skeletal-LiverYes100$27
Green-DiscoveryYes60$16
Unsteady-Porthole-HummusNo60$44
Gleaming-HandlebarYes41$11
Straight-WrinkleYes40$11
Gripping-AbolishmentNo40$29
Clueless-Dugout-TomtomNo35$26
Mad-JudgeYes33$9
Glossy-SpeakerphoneYes20$5

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $150 at 81.7%BUY No — $103 at 73.0%BUY Yes — $45 at 17.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 05:47 AM ETYesSELL11.0%$1
Oct 22, 12:20 PM ETYesBUY24.6%$6
Oct 22, 12:20 PM ETYesBUY23.0%$5
Oct 22, 12:04 PM ETYesBUY25.0%$5
Oct 22, 12:04 PM ETYesBUY20.0%$8
Oct 21, 10:59 PM ETNoSELL76.0%$15
Oct 21, 10:38 PM ETYesBUY21.0%$4
Oct 21, 09:07 PM ETYesBUY21.0%$4
Oct 20, 03:37 PM ETYesBUY16.0%$3
Oct 20, 08:47 AM ETNoBUY82.0%$16

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 27.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/github-git-operations-critical-incident-byptptpt-20261008?via=bro

How much money has been traded on GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...??

$2.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.githubstatus.com/.

What is the most likely outcome of GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

October 31, priced at 27.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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