As of October 24, 2026, 08:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 10–11% at 39.5% in GOP Black vote share? — $6.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 10–11%, is priced at 39.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +10.0 pts; past month: +9.0 pts.
Since September 02, 2026, 10–11% has traded between 25.5% and 45.0%. It opened at 40.5% and last traded at 38.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 36.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 35.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 34.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 38.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 38.5% |
10–11% is favored at 39.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–11% | 40¢ | 39.5% | +1.0 pts | $2.2K | 34.0% |
| 8–9% | 31¢ | 31.0% | -2.5 pts | $2.2K | 35.4% |
| <8% | 7¢ | 7.0% | — | $140 | 2.2% |
| 12–13% | 7¢ | 7.0% | — | $1.2K | 18.3% |
| 18%+ | 6¢ | 5.6% | +0.1 pts | $215 | 3.4% |
| 16–17% | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $109 | 1.7% |
| 14–15% | 5¢ | 5.4% | — | $320 | 5.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 38¢ / ask 41¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$6.3K has been traded on this event in total, $131 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 06, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 163 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 163 | $98 |
| Bumpy-Conscience | Yes | 157 | $62 |
| CompulsiveGambler | Yes | 122 | $48 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 100 | $60 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 48 | $29 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 40 | $16 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 39 | $15 |
| Known-Use | No | 34 | $21 |
| Double-Kidney | Yes | 20 | $8 |
| Plastic-Duck | No | 20 | $12 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 39.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 39.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 12:10 PM ET | No | SELL | 61.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 08:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 06:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 32.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 01:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $26 |
| Oct 24, 01:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 03:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $13 |
| Oct 22, 08:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 39.0% | $9 |
| Oct 22, 08:10 PM ET | No | SELL | 61.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 10–11% at 39.5%. Next is 8–9% at 31.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gop-black-vote-share?via=bro
$6.3K in total volume, with $131 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 06, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
10–11%, priced at 39.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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