Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

GOP Black vote share?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 10–11% at 39.5% in GOP Black vote share? — $6.3K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $131.
Leading outcome
10–11%
40%
A 39.5% price implies roughly a 40-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.0 pts7D +10.0 pts30D +9.0 pts
10–11%39.5%
8–9%31.0%
Bid
38¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
3¢
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Range since September 02, 2026: 25.5% – 45.0% · Opened at 40.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
GOP Black vote share?
Category
Polling, Midterms, Politics
Scheduled end
November 06, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$6.3K
Volume (24h)
$131
Liquidity
$76.1K
Markets
7
Leading outcome
10–11% — 39.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 10–11%, is priced at 39.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +10.0 pts; past month: +9.0 pts.

Since September 02, 2026, 10–11% has traded between 25.5% and 45.0%. It opened at 40.5% and last traded at 38.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202629.5%
Oct 17, 202629.5%
Oct 18, 202636.5%
Oct 19, 202635.0%
Oct 20, 202634.0%
Oct 22, 202638.0%
Oct 23, 202638.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

10–11% is favored at 39.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
10–11%40¢39.5%+1.0 pts$2.2K34.0%
8–9%31¢31.0%-2.5 pts$2.2K35.4%
<8%7¢7.0%—$1402.2%
12–13%7¢7.0%—$1.2K18.3%
18%+6¢5.6%+0.1 pts$2153.4%
16–17%6¢5.5%—$1091.7%
14–15%5¢5.4%—$3205.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 38¢ / ask 41¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$6.3K has been traded on this event in total, $131 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 06, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 163 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No163$98
Bumpy-ConscienceYes157$62
CompulsiveGamblerYes122$48
Skeletal-LiverNo100$60
Belated-GlueNo48$29
Required-HornYes40$16
Fair-TanYes39$15
Known-UseNo34$21
Double-KidneyYes20$8
Plastic-DuckNo20$12

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $154 at 65.0%SELL No — $109 at 73.0%BUY No — $82 at 82.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 12:10 PM ETYesBUY39.0%$2
Oct 24, 12:10 PM ETYesBUY39.0%$8
Oct 24, 12:10 PM ETNoSELL61.0%$16
Oct 24, 08:39 AM ETYesBUY33.0%$7
Oct 24, 06:21 AM ETYesSELL32.0%$0
Oct 24, 01:01 AM ETNoBUY65.0%$26
Oct 24, 01:01 AM ETNoBUY68.0%$13
Oct 23, 03:54 AM ETNoBUY66.0%$13
Oct 22, 08:10 PM ETYesBUY39.0%$9
Oct 22, 08:10 PM ETNoSELL61.0%$16

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of GOP Black vote share??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 10–11% at 39.5%. Next is 8–9% at 31.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gop-black-vote-share?via=bro

How much money has been traded on GOP Black vote share??

$6.3K in total volume, with $131 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.

When does GOP Black vote share? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 06, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of GOP Black vote share?, according to Polymarket traders?

10–11%, priced at 39.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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