Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:31 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Kansas at 43.6% in GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)? — $9.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.6K.
Leading outcome
Kansas
44%
A 43.6% price implies roughly a 44-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −2.9 pts7D +10.5 pts30D +12.7 pts
Kansas43.6%
Iowa33.0%
Bid
43¢
Ask
45¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 17, 2026: 6.5% – 49.5% · Opened at 40.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)?
Category
Senate, midterm, Politics, Dan Osborn, Iowa Midterm, Ashley Hinson, Pete Ricketts, adam hamilton, Kansas Midterm, Roger Marshall, Nebraska Midterm, Margin of Victory
Scheduled end
November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$9.6K
Volume (24h)
$1.6K
Liquidity
$65.2K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
Kansas — 43.6%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Kansas, is priced at 43.6%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.9 pts; past week: +10.5 pts; past month: +12.7 pts.

Since September 17, 2026, Kansas has traded between 6.5% and 49.5%. It opened at 40.5% and last traded at 43.7%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202633.1%
Oct 18, 202631.5%
Oct 19, 202632.3%
Oct 20, 202633.0%
Oct 22, 202649.5%
Oct 23, 202646.9%
Oct 24, 202643.7%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Kansas is favored at 43.6%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Kansas44¢43.6%-2.9 pts$3.1K32.2%
Iowa33¢33.0%+9.5 pts$4.0K41.9%
Nebraska25¢25.0%-3.5 pts$2.5K25.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 43¢ / ask 45¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$9.6K has been traded on this event in total, $1.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election. Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share. If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order. In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 688 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No688$388
Known-UseNo207$117
Several-SubwayYes177$77
Oddball-CofactorYes172$75
Liquid-ArgumentYes160$70
Cumbersome-CirculationYes110$48
0x3a9dad53…Yes101$44
Shy-NoteYes83$36
0x5d49d539…Yes74$32
Direct-ChainstayYes64$28

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $116 at 68.1%BUY No — $43 at 66.0%SELL No — $36 at 57.9%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:22 PM ETNoBUY68.0%$9
Oct 24, 05:22 PM ETNoSELL55.6%$7
Oct 24, 05:22 PM ETNoBUY76.0%$10
Oct 24, 05:17 PM ETNoSELL75.0%$12
Oct 24, 05:16 PM ETNoSELL56.6%$13
Oct 24, 05:16 PM ETYesBUY43.4%$9
Oct 24, 05:16 PM ETYesBUY42.8%$18
Oct 24, 05:16 PM ETYesBUY42.4%$8
Oct 24, 05:16 PM ETYesBUY42.1%$8
Oct 24, 05:16 PM ETNoSELL57.9%$36

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Kansas at 43.6%. Next is Iowa at 33.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gops-worst-great-plains-senate-race-ia-ne-ks?via=bro

How much money has been traded on GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)??

$9.6K in total volume, with $1.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)?, according to Polymarket traders?

Kansas, priced at 43.6% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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