Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

GPT Astra 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $40+ at 81.5% in GPT Astra 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut? — $8.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $354.
Leading outcome
$40+
82%
A 81.5% price implies roughly a 82-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −5.5 pts7D +16.0 pts30D +3.5 pts
$40+81.5%
$50+38.0%
Bid
77¢
Ask
86¢
Spread
9¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 24, 2026: 54.5% – 87.0% · Opened at 69.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
GPT Astra 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut?
Category
AI, gpt, Tech, Astra, Debut, OpenAI, Compute, AI Releases
Scheduled end
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$8.5K
Volume (24h)
$354
Liquidity
$1.7K
Markets
4
Leading outcome
$40+ — 81.5%
Resolution source
https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, $40+, is priced at 81.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.5 pts; past week: +16.0 pts; past month: +3.5 pts.

Since September 24, 2026, $40+ has traded between 54.5% and 87.0%. It opened at 69.5% and last traded at 87.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202668.0%
Oct 17, 202665.5%
Oct 18, 202665.5%
Oct 19, 202670.5%
Oct 20, 202671.5%
Oct 22, 202687.0%
Oct 23, 202687.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

$40+ is favored at 81.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
$40+82¢81.5%-5.5 pts$2.8K33.4%
$50+38¢38.0%+7.0 pts$3.9K46.3%
$60+6¢6.0%—$1.4K16.8%
$75+4¢3.8%-0.1 pts$2943.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 9¢ (bid 77¢ / ask 86¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$8.5K has been traded on this event in total, $354 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. The debut price is the “Standard” output token price, using the “Short context” rate, announced by OpenAI or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, Flex, Fast mode, Priority, long-context, cached, regional, and data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 202 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueNo202$37
Piercing-FormationYes189$154
Jubilant-CordYes123$100
Snappy-RoosterNo111$21
Modern-OverloadYes100$82
Straight-WrinkleNo90$17
Deafening-Cyclamen-SickYes24$19
Embarrassed-Hill-FoldNo23$4
Complex-OptimistYes20$16
Oddball-PoisonNo16$3

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $560 at 94.0%BUY No — $413 at 69.3%BUY Yes — $150 at 79.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 11:28 AM ETYesSELL82.0%$1
Oct 24, 11:28 AM ETNoBUY18.0%$4
Oct 24, 11:28 AM ETNoBUY15.7%$10
Oct 24, 11:28 AM ETYesSELL85.0%$85
Oct 24, 11:28 AM ETNoBUY18.0%$4
Oct 24, 11:28 AM ETNoBUY18.0%$4
Oct 24, 11:28 AM ETNoBUY16.0%$3
Oct 24, 10:14 AM ETYesBUY38.0%$11
Oct 23, 09:19 PM ETNoBUY53.0%$10
Oct 23, 08:46 PM ETYesBUY32.0%$13

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of GPT Astra 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is $40+ at 81.5%. Next is $50+ at 38.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-astra-6pt1-output-token-price-debut?via=bro

How much money has been traded on GPT Astra 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut??

$8.5K in total volume, with $354 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.

When does GPT Astra 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut? end?

The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing.

What is the most likely outcome of GPT Astra 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut?, according to Polymarket traders?

$40+, priced at 81.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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