As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $40+ at 81.5% in GPT Astra 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut? — $8.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, $40+, is priced at 81.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.5 pts; past week: +16.0 pts; past month: +3.5 pts.
Since September 24, 2026, $40+ has traded between 54.5% and 87.0%. It opened at 69.5% and last traded at 87.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 68.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 87.0% |
$40+ is favored at 81.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40+ | 82¢ | 81.5% | -5.5 pts | $2.8K | 33.4% |
| $50+ | 38¢ | 38.0% | +7.0 pts | $3.9K | 46.3% |
| $60+ | 6¢ | 6.0% | — | $1.4K | 16.8% |
| $75+ | 4¢ | 3.8% | -0.1 pts | $294 | 3.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 9¢ (bid 77¢ / ask 86¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$8.5K has been traded on this event in total, $354 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. The debut price is the “Standard” output token price, using the “Short context” rate, announced by OpenAI or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, Flex, Fast mode, Priority, long-context, cached, regional, and data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 202 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 202 | $37 |
| Piercing-Formation | Yes | 189 | $154 |
| Jubilant-Cord | Yes | 123 | $100 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 111 | $21 |
| Modern-Overload | Yes | 100 | $82 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 90 | $17 |
| Deafening-Cyclamen-Sick | Yes | 24 | $19 |
| Embarrassed-Hill-Fold | No | 23 | $4 |
| Complex-Optimist | Yes | 20 | $16 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 16 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 82.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 18.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 11:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 15.7% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 11:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 85.0% | $85 |
| Oct 24, 11:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 18.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 11:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 18.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 11:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 16.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 10:14 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 38.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 09:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 53.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 08:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $13 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is $40+ at 81.5%. Next is $50+ at 38.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-astra-6pt1-output-token-price-debut?via=bro
$8.5K in total volume, with $354 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing.
$40+, priced at 81.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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