As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 63.7% in Greta Thunberg arrested by...? — $74.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 63.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.2 pts; past week: +2.5 pts; past month: -19.6 pts.
Since April 22, 2026, December 31 has traded between 31.5% and 95.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 63.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 64.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 60.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 62.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 62.3% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 59.9% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 64.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 63.7% |
December 31 is favored at 63.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 64¢ | 63.7% | -0.2 pts | $2.1K | 2.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 13¢ (bid 57¢ / ask 70¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$74.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 678 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic-Sender | No | 678 | $246 |
| Green-Recruit | Yes | 428 | $273 |
| Tremendous-Divide | Yes | 250 | $159 |
| Mortified-Wetland | No | 120 | $43 |
| Unacceptable-Kielbasa | No | 87 | $31 |
| Harmless-Baseball | Yes | 87 | $55 |
| Subtle-Creditor | Yes | 61 | $39 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | Yes | 55 | $35 |
| Frosty-Leaf | Yes | 54 | $34 |
| Adolescent-Hardcover-Difficulty | No | 48 | $18 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 05:28 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 53.0% | $5 |
| Oct 20, 02:02 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 55.8% | $6 |
| Oct 15, 01:36 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 54.8% | $3 |
| Oct 13, 04:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 53.0% | $2 |
| Oct 13, 08:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.6% | $121 |
| Oct 13, 08:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 76.3% | $144 |
| Oct 13, 08:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 41.3% | $144 |
| Oct 12, 01:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 22.6% | $5 |
| Oct 11, 10:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 84.4% | $2 |
| Oct 11, 10:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 84.3% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 63.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/greta-thunberg-arrested-by-june-30?via=bro
$74.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 63.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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