Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Greta Thunberg arrested by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 63.7% in Greta Thunberg arrested by...? — $74.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
December 31
64%
A 63.7% price implies roughly a 64-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.2 pts7D +2.5 pts30D −19.6 pts
Bid
57¢
Ask
70¢
Spread
13¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since April 22, 2026: 31.5% – 95.0% · Opened at 50.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Greta Thunberg arrested by...?
Category
Greta Thunberg, Gaza, Middle East, Politics, Israel, World
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$74.0K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$1.2K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31 — 63.7%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 63.7%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.2 pts; past week: +2.5 pts; past month: -19.6 pts.

Since April 22, 2026, December 31 has traded between 31.5% and 95.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 63.7%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202664.0%
Oct 18, 202660.8%
Oct 19, 202662.2%
Oct 20, 202662.3%
Oct 22, 202659.9%
Oct 23, 202664.1%
Oct 24, 202663.7%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 63.7%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3164¢63.7%-0.2 pts$2.1K2.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 13¢ (bid 57¢ / ask 70¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$74.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 678 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Athletic-SenderNo678$246
Green-RecruitYes428$273
Tremendous-DivideYes250$159
Mortified-WetlandNo120$43
Unacceptable-KielbasaNo87$31
Harmless-BaseballYes87$55
Subtle-CreditorYes61$39
Kaleidoscopic-HemisphereYes55$35
Frosty-LeafYes54$34
Adolescent-Hardcover-DifficultyNo48$18

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $144 at 41.3%BUY No — $144 at 76.3%BUY No — $121 at 85.6%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 22, 05:28 PM ETYesSELL53.0%$5
Oct 20, 02:02 AM ETYesSELL55.8%$6
Oct 15, 01:36 AM ETYesBUY54.8%$3
Oct 13, 04:45 PM ETYesSELL53.0%$2
Oct 13, 08:40 AM ETNoBUY85.6%$121
Oct 13, 08:40 AM ETNoBUY76.3%$144
Oct 13, 08:40 AM ETNoBUY41.3%$144
Oct 12, 01:07 PM ETNoBUY22.6%$5
Oct 11, 10:02 AM ETYesBUY84.4%$2
Oct 11, 10:02 AM ETYesBUY84.3%$4

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Greta Thunberg arrested by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 63.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/greta-thunberg-arrested-by-june-30?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Greta Thunberg arrested by...??

$74.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Greta Thunberg arrested by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Greta Thunberg arrested by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 63.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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