Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Grok 5 released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 38.5% in Grok 5 released by...? — $21.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $76.
Leading outcome
December 31
38%
A 38.5% price implies roughly a 38-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.0 pts7D −9.0 pts30D −2.5 pts
December 3138.5%
November 3014.0%
Bid
36¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
5¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since July 10, 2026: 30.5% – 82.0% · Opened at 43.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Grok 5 released by...?
Category
AI, Grok, Tech, Big Tech, Elon Musk, AI Releases
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$21.0K
Volume (24h)
$76
Liquidity
$2.7K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31 — 38.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 38.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: -9.0 pts; past month: -2.5 pts.

Since July 10, 2026, December 31 has traded between 30.5% and 82.0%. It opened at 43.5% and last traded at 37.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202640.0%
Oct 17, 202652.0%
Oct 18, 202641.5%
Oct 19, 202641.5%
Oct 20, 202634.5%
Oct 22, 202630.5%
Oct 23, 202637.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 38.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3138¢38.5%+1.0 pts$8.5K40.6%
November 3014¢14.0%+0.5 pts$2.3K10.9%
October 311¢0.5%—$5.1K24.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 36¢ / ask 41¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$21.0K has been traded on this event in total, $76 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify. Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 599 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xc602570a…Yes599$230
Square-TrustNo518$319
Capital-EndodermNo480$295
Appropriate-Antennae-LayerNo352$216
Guilty-SpringYes245$94
Belated-GlueYes243$93
Past-PunishmentYes239$92
Evil-RowNo225$138
These-PlatypusNo149$92
Frigid-Hosiery-TodayNo112$69

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $557 at 94.0%BUY No — $403 at 99.6%BUY No — $171 at 99.2%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:52 AM ETYesSELL32.0%$6
Oct 24, 04:11 AM ETYesBUY13.0%$5
Oct 24, 01:32 AM ETNoBUY65.0%$13
Oct 23, 03:12 AM ETNoBUY88.0%$5
Oct 22, 08:04 PM ETYesBUY34.0%$7
Oct 22, 08:04 PM ETYesBUY32.0%$13
Oct 22, 07:14 PM ETYesSELL28.0%$1
Oct 22, 07:14 PM ETYesSELL29.0%$1
Oct 22, 03:46 PM ETYesBUY30.0%$6
Oct 22, 01:56 PM ETNoSELL67.0%$4

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Grok 5 released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 38.5%. Next is November 30 at 14.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/grok-5-released-byptptpt-20260710195520919?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Grok 5 released by...??

$21.0K in total volume, with $76 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Grok 5 released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Grok 5 released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 38.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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