As of October 24, 2026, 08:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 38.5% in Grok 5 released by...? — $21.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 38.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: -9.0 pts; past month: -2.5 pts.
Since July 10, 2026, December 31 has traded between 30.5% and 82.0%. It opened at 43.5% and last traded at 37.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 41.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 41.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 34.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 37.0% |
December 31 is favored at 38.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 38¢ | 38.5% | +1.0 pts | $8.5K | 40.6% |
| November 30 | 14¢ | 14.0% | +0.5 pts | $2.3K | 10.9% |
| October 31 | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $5.1K | 24.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 36¢ / ask 41¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$21.0K has been traded on this event in total, $76 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify. Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 599 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc602570a… | Yes | 599 | $230 |
| Square-Trust | No | 518 | $319 |
| Capital-Endoderm | No | 480 | $295 |
| Appropriate-Antennae-Layer | No | 352 | $216 |
| Guilty-Spring | Yes | 245 | $94 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 243 | $93 |
| Past-Punishment | Yes | 239 | $92 |
| Evil-Row | No | 225 | $138 |
| These-Platypus | No | 149 | $92 |
| Frigid-Hosiery-Today | No | 112 | $69 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:52 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 32.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 04:11 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 03:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 08:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 08:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $13 |
| Oct 22, 07:14 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 28.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 07:14 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 03:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 01:56 PM ET | No | SELL | 67.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 38.5%. Next is November 30 at 14.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/grok-5-released-byptptpt-20260710195520919?via=bro
$21.0K in total volume, with $76 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 38.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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