Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Guerrero Congress Election Winner

As of October 24, 2026, 08:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Morena at 85.5% in Guerrero Congress Election Winner — $4.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
Morena
86%
A 85.5% price implies roughly a 86-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +1.0 pts
Morena85.5%
Party A50.0%
Bid
85¢
Ask
86¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 09, 2026: 40.0% – 85.5% · Opened at 40.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Guerrero Congress Election Winner
Category
Mexico, Politics, Elections, Main Election, Mexico Election, Global Elections
Scheduled end
June 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$4.2K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$78.1K
Markets
37
Leading outcome
Morena — 85.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Morena, is priced at 85.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.0 pts.

Since October 09, 2026, Morena has traded between 40.0% and 85.5%. It opened at 40.0% and last traded at 85.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202684.0%
Oct 17, 202684.0%
Oct 18, 202683.0%
Oct 19, 202684.0%
Oct 20, 202685.5%
Oct 22, 202685.5%
Oct 23, 202685.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Morena is favored at 85.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Morena86¢85.5%—$2.3K54.5%
Party A50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party B50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party C50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party D50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party E50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party F50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party G50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party H50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party I50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party J50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party K50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party L50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party M50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party N50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party O50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party P50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party Q50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party R50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party S50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party T50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party U50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party V50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party W50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party X50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party Y50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party Z50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party AA50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party AB50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party AC50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party AD50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Other50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
PRI6¢6.2%+0.4 pts$2967.1%
PT4¢4.0%—$68916.6%
PVEM3¢3.0%-0.1 pts$1563.8%
MC3¢2.5%—$59214.3%
PAN2¢2.4%-0.1 pts$1563.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 85¢ / ask 86¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$4.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 37 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Legislative elections to elect the 46 members of the Congress of the State of Guerrero are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Guerrero as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Guerrero. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana del Estado de Guerrero, and not toward the coalition as a whole. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 746 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueNo746$108
Unselfish-Mineral-SundayYes502$429
Dull-UniverseYes433$370
0xa5ef39c3…No256$37
Silent-RowboatYes106$91
Direct-ChainstayYes102$87
Golden-PanpipeNo53$8
Internal-AirshipNo25$4
Required-HornNo20$3
Descriptive-Servitude-StudNo20$3

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $133 at 78.0%BUY No — $111 at 88.3%SELL Yes — $91 at 76.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 11:44 AM ETNoBUY15.0%$1
Oct 23, 11:44 AM ETNoBUY98.9%$5
Oct 23, 11:44 AM ETNoBUY99.0%$5
Oct 16, 01:06 PM ETYesBUY81.0%$16
Oct 16, 10:36 AM ETYesBUY78.0%$31
Oct 16, 08:57 AM ETYesSELL76.0%$91
Oct 15, 06:33 PM ETYesBUY84.0%$5
Oct 15, 06:33 PM ETNoSELL19.0%$1
Oct 15, 06:33 PM ETNoSELL19.0%$1
Oct 15, 06:33 PM ETNoSELL19.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Guerrero Congress Election Winner?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Morena at 85.5%. Next is Party A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/guerrero-congress-election-winner?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Guerrero Congress Election Winner?

$4.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 37 markets.

When does Guerrero Congress Election Winner end?

The market is scheduled to end June 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Guerrero Congress Election Winner, according to Polymarket traders?

Morena, priced at 85.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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