As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Umaro Sissoco Embaló at 16.2% in Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election — $344.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, is priced at 16.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.9 pts; past week: +0.8 pts; past month: +8.2 pts.
Since November 06, 2025, Umaro Sissoco Embaló has traded between 1.4% and 96.4%. It opened at 73.0% and last traded at 16.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 14.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 15.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 16.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 29.1% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 11.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 11.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 16.1% |
Umaro Sissoco Embaló is favored at 16.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umaro Sissoco Embaló | 16¢ | 16.2% | -0.9 pts | $92.2K | 26.8% |
| Fernando Dias da Costa | 7¢ | 7.0% | +0.2 pts | $59.2K | 17.2% |
| José Mário Vaz | 2¢ | 2.4% | — | $22.5K | 6.5% |
| João Bernardo Vieira | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $17.2K | 5.0% |
| Mamadu Iaia Djaló | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $20.2K | 5.9% |
| Mário da Silva Júnior | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $18.4K | 5.4% |
| Siga Batista | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $26.5K | 7.7% |
| Baciro Djá | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $14.8K | 4.3% |
| Honório Augusto Lopes | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $19.0K | 5.5% |
| Herculano Armando Bequinsa | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $16.7K | 4.9% |
| João de Deus Mendes | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $17.9K | 5.2% |
| Gabriel Fernando Indi | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $19.5K | 5.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 22¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 27¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$344.1K has been traded on this event in total, $142 of it in the last 24 hours, across 39 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Resolution source: https://www.cne.gw/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,477 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 6,477 | $5.4K |
| Stained-Cynic | Yes | 1,016 | $164 |
| Soggy-Brilliant | Yes | 1,000 | $162 |
| Monumental-Generator | Yes | 873 | $141 |
| Dull-Universe | No | 657 | $551 |
| Noxious-Organization | Yes | 416 | $67 |
| Dangerous-Landmine | Yes | 400 | $65 |
| Considerate-Contract | Yes | 291 | $47 |
| Granular-Mankind-Terminal | Yes | 277 | $45 |
| Brief-Beet | Yes | 214 | $35 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:33 AM ET | No | SELL | 75.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 11:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.8% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 11:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.8% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 11:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.7% | $120 |
| Oct 23, 03:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.9% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 03:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.7% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 04:36 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.5% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 09:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.9% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 09:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.9% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 09:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.9% | $120 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Umaro Sissoco Embaló at 16.2%. Next is Fernando Dias da Costa at 7.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-presidential-election?via=bro
$344.1K in total volume, with $142 traded in the last 24 hours across 39 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.cne.gw/.
Umaro Sissoco Embaló, priced at 16.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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