As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 5.5% in Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...? — $308.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 5.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: +1.0 pts.
Since April 08, 2026, December 31 has traded between 4.0% and 27.5%. It opened at 27.5% and last traded at 5.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 5.0% |
December 31 is favored at 5.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $113.9K | 36.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$308.8K has been traded on this event in total, $167 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 10,133 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unfit-Coleslaw | Yes | 10,133 | $557 |
| Cheery-Preparation | No | 6,679 | $6.3K |
| Dull-Universe | No | 3,910 | $3.7K |
| Funny-Squirrel | Yes | 935 | $51 |
| Wobbly-Tooth | No | 699 | $660 |
| Giddy-Cod | Yes | 579 | $32 |
| Arctic-Kickoff | No | 575 | $543 |
| Small-Pompom | Yes | 327 | $18 |
| Worthy-Lament | Yes | 167 | $9 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 133 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 08:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $10 |
| Oct 22, 11:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $5 |
| Oct 16, 12:44 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $7 |
| Oct 16, 12:24 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $2 |
| Oct 04, 12:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 04, 03:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 03, 06:56 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Sep 30, 01:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $30 |
| Sep 25, 07:24 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $2 |
| Sep 21, 02:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 5.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/hamad-bin-isa-al-khalifa-out-as-bahrain-king?via=bro
$308.8K in total volume, with $167 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 5.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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