As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 74.5% in Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2? — $9.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 74.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +7.5 pts.
Since October 16, 2026, No has traded between 69.0% and 85.0%. It opened at 69.0% and last traded at 75.0%.
No is favored at 74.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 74¢ | 74.5% | -0.5 pts | $9.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 26¢ | 25.5% | +0.5 pts | $9.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 25¢ / ask 26¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 02, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adam Hamilton (D)'s hourly odds value is higher than Roger Marshall (R)'s hourly odds value in the "Kansas Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Adam Hamilton (D) being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 818 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Far-Off-Skean | Yes | 818 | $209 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | No | 501 | $373 |
| Flickering-Wing | Yes | 480 | $122 |
| Partial-Adrenalin | No | 428 | $319 |
| Arid-Cinema | No | 200 | $149 |
| Small-Fellow-Mandolin | No | 195 | $145 |
| Impure-Township | Yes | 109 | $28 |
| Tragic-Member | No | 107 | $79 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 89 | $23 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 81 | $60 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 06:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 76.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 08:09 PM ET | No | BUY | 75.8% | $20 |
| Oct 22, 06:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 04:09 PM ET | No | BUY | 76.0% | $185 |
| Oct 22, 08:33 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 24.0% | $24 |
| Oct 22, 02:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $18 |
| Oct 22, 02:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $15 |
| Oct 22, 02:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 02:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $16 |
| Oct 22, 02:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $48 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 74.5%. Next is Yes at 25.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/hamilton-flips-marshall-for-kansas-senate-by-november-2?via=bro
$9.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 02, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 74.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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