As of October 24, 2026, 08:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 81.8% in Hasan Piker arrested in 2026? — $4.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 81.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +12.2 pts; past week: +5.7 pts; past month: -16.6 pts.
Since September 08, 2026, No has traded between 51.0% and 95.0%. It opened at 95.0% and last traded at 94.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 86.8% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 85.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 87.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 87.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 86.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.0% |
No is favored at 81.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 82¢ | 81.8% | -12.2 pts | $4.8K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 18¢ | 18.1% | +12.2 pts | $4.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 16¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 26¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.8K has been traded on this event in total, $187 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hasan Piker is arrested or detained by law enforcement between September 6 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge's decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 911 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Superior-Olive | No | 911 | $746 |
| Ill-Fated-Garment-Eddy | Yes | 889 | $161 |
| JonnyA | No | 357 | $292 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 241 | $44 |
| Concrete-Horn | No | 160 | $131 |
| Faint-Skate | Yes | 101 | $18 |
| FrankyFourFingers | No | 100 | $82 |
| Crafty-Crunch | Yes | 95 | $17 |
| Elated-Custom | Yes | 72 | $13 |
| New-Camel | Yes | 65 | $12 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.7% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.3% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:39 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.7% | $53 |
| Oct 24, 06:38 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.3% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:38 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.3% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 05:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.2% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 04:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 89.9% | $18 |
| Oct 23, 04:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 89.9% | $36 |
| Oct 23, 04:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 87.8% | $141 |
| Oct 21, 02:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.6% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 81.8%. Next is Yes at 18.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/hasan-piker-arrested-in-2026?via=bro
$4.8K in total volume, with $187 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 81.8% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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