As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 42%+ at 71.0% in Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? — $166.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 42%+, is priced at 71.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +7.5 pts.
Since October 22, 2026, 42%+ has traded between 62.5% and 63.5%. It opened at 62.5% and last traded at 63.5%.
42%+ is favored at 71.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42%+ | 71¢ | 71.0% | +7.5 pts | $374 | 0.2% |
| 45%+ | 60¢ | 59.7% | +2.4 pts | $65.8K | 39.5% |
| 50%+ | 38¢ | 37.5% | -0.5 pts | $39.0K | 23.4% |
| 55%+ | 20¢ | 20.5% | -1.5 pts | $37.2K | 22.4% |
| 60%+ | 14¢ | 13.5% | +0.5 pts | $21.0K | 12.6% |
| 65%+ | 5¢ | 5.1% | +0.1 pts | $3.1K | 1.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 34¢ (bid 54¢ / ask 88¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$166.4K has been traded on this event in total, $606 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution source: https://agi.safe.ai/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 21 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 21 | $6 |
| Adorable-Cat | No | 20 | $6 |
| Fixed-Eaglet | Yes | 19 | $13 |
| Mundane-Comradeship | Yes | 19 | $13 |
| Modest-Odometer | Yes | 10 | $7 |
| Ordinary-Email-Empire | No | 10 | $3 |
| Energetic-Mansion | Yes | 2 | $1 |
| Taut-Giant | Yes | 1 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 35.6% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 03:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 44.9% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 03:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 45.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 08:36 AM ET | No | BUY | 45.5% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 08:36 AM ET | No | BUY | 45.5% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 12:42 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 53.7% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 12:42 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 54.2% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 11:34 PM ET | No | SELL | 35.7% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 09:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 46.6% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 09:07 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 53.4% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 42%+ at 71.0%. Next is 45%+ at 59.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/highest-grok-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-in-2026-20260723191502948?via=bro
$166.4K in total volume, with $606 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://agi.safe.ai/.
42%+, priced at 71.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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