As of October 24, 2026, 07:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 50%+ at 45.5% in Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? — $88.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 50%+, is priced at 45.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +11.0 pts.
50%+ is favored at 45.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%+ | 46¢ | 45.5% | +11.0 pts | $340 | 0.4% |
| 60%+ | 7¢ | 7.0% | — | $20.7K | 23.5% |
| 55%+ | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $53.2K | 60.4% |
| 65%+ | 5¢ | 4.9% | +0.7 pts | $11.2K | 12.8% |
| 70%+ | 5¢ | 4.7% | -0.1 pts | $2.6K | 2.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 21¢ (bid 35¢ / ask 56¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$88.1K has been traded on this event in total, $140 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution source: https://agi.safe.ai/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 40 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 40 | $18 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 20 | $11 |
| Zigzag-Conspirator-Glee | No | 20 | $11 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 06:15 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 12:18 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.2% | $20 |
| Oct 22, 03:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 05:22 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 05:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 05:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $13 |
| Oct 22, 05:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.4% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 05:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $18 |
| Oct 22, 05:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.7% | $17 |
| Oct 22, 05:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 50%+ at 45.5%. Next is 60%+ at 7.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/highest-meta-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-in-2026-20260723192006805?via=bro
$88.1K in total volume, with $140 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://agi.safe.ai/.
50%+, priced at 45.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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