Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Highest sea level in San Diego this winter?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 7.70 ft or more at 73.5% in Highest sea level in San Diego this winter? — $7.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.2K.
Leading outcome
7.70 ft or more
74%
A 73.5% price implies roughly a 74-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −6.0 pts7D +4.0 pts
7.70 ft or more73.5%
7.90 ft or more68.5%
Bid
70¢
Ask
77¢
Spread
7¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 30, 2026: 27.5% – 78.5% · Opened at 27.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Highest sea level in San Diego this winter?
Category
Weather, climate, San Diego
Scheduled end
April 01, 2027, 03:00 AM ET
Total volume
$7.4K
Volume (24h)
$1.2K
Liquidity
$1.6K
Markets
4
Leading outcome
7.70 ft or more — 73.5%
Resolution source
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=9410230&units=standard&timezone=LST/LDT&datum=MLLW&interval=6&action=data

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 7.70 ft or more, is priced at 73.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -6.0 pts; past week: +4.0 pts.

Since September 30, 2026, 7.70 ft or more has traded between 27.5% and 78.5%. It opened at 27.5% and last traded at 73.5%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202670.5%
Oct 15, 202667.5%
Oct 16, 202669.0%
Oct 18, 202669.5%
Oct 19, 202669.0%
Oct 20, 202678.5%
Oct 24, 202673.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

7.70 ft or more is favored at 73.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
7.70 ft or more74¢73.5%-6.0 pts$2.7K35.7%
7.90 ft or more68¢68.5%+13.5 pts$98313.2%
8.10 ft or more60¢60.0%+32.0 pts$1.6K22.0%
8.30 ft or more52¢52.0%+31.5 pts$2.2K29.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 70¢ / ask 77¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$7.4K has been traded on this event in total, $1.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end April 01, 2027, 03:00 AM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the water level at NOAA CO-OPS station 9410230 (La Jolla, CA) is equal to or greater than the listed value, in feet above Mean Lower Low Water, at any six-minute observation between 12:00 AM PT on October 1, 2026 and 11:59 PM PT on March 31, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mean Lower Low Water for this market is the tidal datum published for station 9410230 on the 1983-2001 National Tidal Datum Epoch, equal to 4.37 feet above station datum. A subsequent change to the National Tidal Datum Epoch will not change the values used. Only six-minute water levels that NOAA CO-OPS has marked verified are used. On the resolution source page these are the values in the "Verified (ft)" column; values in the "Preliminary (ft)" and "Predicted (ft)" columns will not be considered for resolution. In the CO-OPS API the equivalent is a Quality field of "v". Values are compared as published, without rounding. CO-OPS verifies each month of data during the following month, so an observation that meets the listed value will not resolve this market until it has been verified. A verified observation is used regardless of any quality-control flag NOAA CO-OPS attaches to it. The value as first published as verified governs. A revision published after that will not be considered for resolution, except where the correction provision below applies. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=9410230&units=standard&timezone=LST/LDT&datum=MLLW&interval=6&action=data

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 389 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueNo389$103
Teeming-PuppetYes361$265
Corny-HyphenationNo117$31
Direct-ChainstayNo92$24
Zigzag-Emergence-MortiseYes72$53
Required-HornYes60$44
Knowing-RomanceYes40$29
Zigzag-Conspirator-GleeNo40$11
Oddball-PoisonYes32$23
0x46299616…No30$8

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $271 at 79.0%BUY No — $125 at 76.3%BUY No — $113 at 78.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:18 PM ETNoBUY27.0%$5
Oct 24, 03:33 PM ETNoBUY60.4%$50
Oct 24, 03:33 PM ETNoBUY69.4%$41
Oct 24, 02:58 PM ETYesBUY45.0%$80
Oct 24, 01:53 PM ETYesBUY65.0%$13
Oct 24, 08:39 AM ETNoSELL66.5%$27
Oct 24, 08:39 AM ETYesBUY35.0%$7
Oct 24, 07:52 AM ETNoBUY26.0%$5
Oct 24, 07:52 AM ETNoBUY22.0%$22
Oct 24, 07:46 AM ETYesBUY32.0%$4

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Highest sea level in San Diego this winter??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 7.70 ft or more at 73.5%. Next is 7.90 ft or more at 68.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/highest-sea-level-in-san-diego-this-winter?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Highest sea level in San Diego this winter??

$7.4K in total volume, with $1.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.

When does Highest sea level in San Diego this winter? end?

The market is scheduled to end April 01, 2027, 03:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=9410230&units=standard&timezone=LST/LDT&datum=MLLW&interval=6&action=data.

What is the most likely outcome of Highest sea level in San Diego this winter?, according to Polymarket traders?

7.70 ft or more, priced at 73.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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