As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 16°C at 96.4% in Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 18? — $377.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 16°C, is priced at 96.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +7.2 pts; past week: +68.9 pts.
Since October 16, 2026, 16°C has traded between 41.0% and 96.5%. It opened at 41.0% and last traded at 96.4%.
16°C is favored at 96.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16°C | 96¢ | 96.4% | +7.2 pts | $77.7K | 20.6% |
| 18°C | 1¢ | 0.8% | -0.5 pts | $42.9K | 11.4% |
| 17°C | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $55.4K | 14.7% |
| 19°C or higher | 0¢ | 0.4% | -1.1 pts | $113.3K | 30.0% |
| 15°C | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.3 pts | $35.8K | 9.5% |
| 11°C | 0¢ | 0.2% | -2.4 pts | $5.8K | 1.5% |
| 13°C | 0¢ | 0.2% | -1.5 pts | $4.9K | 1.3% |
| 14°C | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.9 pts | $24.6K | 6.5% |
| 12°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | -2.8 pts | $6.0K | 1.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 94¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$377.3K has been traded on this event in total, $6.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 18, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,616 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 7,616 | $274 |
| Key-Sovereignty | Yes | 5,010 | $4.8K |
| Sudden-Snowstorm | No | 5,000 | $180 |
| Whole-Challenge | Yes | 3,499 | $3.4K |
| Expert-Neuropathologist | Yes | 2,861 | $2.8K |
| 0x7cd843cf… | Yes | 2,711 | $2.6K |
| Notable-Fireman | No | 2,316 | $83 |
| Any-Polenta | No | 1,492 | $54 |
| Honored-Proponent | Yes | 1,454 | $1.4K |
| Distant-Pension-Flintlock | Yes | 1,265 | $1.2K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.3% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 03:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.3% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 98.2% | $481 |
| Oct 24, 01:28 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 01:14 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.1% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:14 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.1% | $58 |
| Oct 24, 01:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.1% | $73 |
| Oct 24, 01:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $52 |
| Oct 24, 01:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.6% | $119 |
| Oct 24, 01:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.3% | $117 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 16°C at 96.4%. Next is 18°C at 0.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-cape-town-on-october-18-2026?via=bro
$377.3K in total volume, with $6.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 18, 2026, 08:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact.
16°C, priced at 96.4% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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