Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Highest temperature in Chicago on October 25?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 74-75°F at 46.0% in Highest temperature in Chicago on October 25? — $11.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $6.4K.
Leading outcome
74-75°F
46%
A 46.0% price implies roughly a 46-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +2.5 pts
74-75°F46.0%
72-73°F42.5%
Bid
44¢
Ask
48¢
Spread
4¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 23, 2026: 44.0% – 44.0% · Opened at 44.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Highest temperature in Chicago on October 25?
Category
Weather, Recurring, Hide From New, Chicago, Daily Temperature, Highest temperature
Scheduled end
October 25, 2026, 08:00 AM ET
Total volume
$11.8K
Volume (24h)
$6.4K
Liquidity
$35.8K
Markets
11
Leading outcome
74-75°F — 46.0%
Resolution source
https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KORD&format=raw&date=2026-10-26T08:00:00Z&hours=30

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 74-75°F, is priced at 46.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts.

Since October 23, 2026, 74-75°F has traded between 44.0% and 44.0%. It opened at 44.0% and last traded at 44.0%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

74-75°F is favored at 46.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
74-75°F46¢46.0%+2.5 pts$3.2K27.6%
72-73°F42¢42.5%+29.0 pts$2.2K18.6%
76-77°F6¢6.0%-32.5 pts$2.5K21.7%
70-71°F4¢4.0%+1.8 pts$8917.6%
78-79°F1¢0.7%-3.0 pts$1.2K10.3%
68-69°F0¢0.2%—$4583.9%
66-67°F0¢0.1%-0.6 pts$2982.5%
63°F or below0¢0.1%—$1451.2%
64-65°F0¢0.1%—$1451.2%
80-81°F0¢0.1%-0.1 pts$3963.4%
82°F or higher0¢0.1%-0.3 pts$2482.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 44¢ / ask 48¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$11.8K has been traded on this event in total, $6.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport (KORD) on 25 Oct '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport (KORD) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KORD&format=raw&date=2026-10-26T08:00:00Z&hours=30

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,133 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No1,133$612
0x65f7226a…Yes614$283
Boiling-MiscommunicationYes208$96
Scrawny-ReporterYes179$83
Remarkable-UnderpassNo150$81
Magnificent-Sisterinlaw-CommotionNo121$65
Each-Rhetoric-ForgeryYes108$50
Granular-CeleriacYes103$47
Frightened-GuacamoleNo101$54
Lovable-HutchYes97$44

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $77 at 43.4%BUY No — $73 at 51.2%BUY No — $61 at 72.9%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 08:10 PM ETYesBUY7.0%$1
Oct 24, 08:01 PM ETNoBUY56.0%$6
Oct 24, 07:10 PM ETYesBUY43.0%$10
Oct 24, 07:00 PM ETNoBUY51.2%$73
Oct 24, 07:00 PM ETNoBUY56.0%$10
Oct 24, 07:00 PM ETYesBUY52.0%$5
Oct 24, 06:03 PM ETYesBUY44.5%$4
Oct 24, 05:52 PM ETNoBUY95.0%$6
Oct 24, 05:21 PM ETYesBUY7.0%$1
Oct 24, 05:11 PM ETYesSELL48.0%$3

Related markets

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Highest temperature in Chicago on October 25??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 74-75°F at 46.0%. Next is 72-73°F at 42.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-chicago-on-october-25-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Highest temperature in Chicago on October 25??

$11.8K in total volume, with $6.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.

When does Highest temperature in Chicago on October 25? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 08:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KORD&format=raw&date=2026-10-26T08:00:00Z&hours=30.

What is the most likely outcome of Highest temperature in Chicago on October 25?, according to Polymarket traders?

74-75°F, priced at 46.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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