As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 31°C at 99.9% in Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 24? — $73.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 31°C, is priced at 99.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +66.3 pts.
Since October 22, 2026, 31°C has traded between 33.5% and 43.0%. It opened at 43.0% and last traded at 33.5%.
31°C is favored at 99.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31°C | 100¢ | 99.9% | +66.3 pts | $20.9K | 28.7% |
| 26°C or below | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $151 | 0.2% |
| 27°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $723 | 1.0% |
| 28°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.5 pts | $1.8K | 2.5% |
| 29°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.9 pts | $4.8K | 6.6% |
| 30°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | -7.4 pts | $13.2K | 18.1% |
| 32°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | -55.5 pts | $14.7K | 20.1% |
| 33°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | -5.2 pts | $13.2K | 18.1% |
| 34°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $2.8K | 3.9% |
| 35°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $460 | 0.6% |
| 36°C or higher | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $240 | 0.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 100¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$73.0K has been traded on this event in total, $51.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 24, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,666 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 8,666 | $13 |
| Husky-Golf | Yes | 5,000 | $5.0K |
| Plaintive-Bankbook | Yes | 2,131 | $2.1K |
| Advanced-Metabolite | Yes | 883 | $881 |
| Vast-Impostor | Yes | 780 | $779 |
| Sturdy-Desk | Yes | 522 | $521 |
| Granular-Forebear | Yes | 500 | $499 |
| Low-Carrot | No | 483 | $1 |
| Shameful-Dictionary | No | 407 | $1 |
| Sticky-Tabernacle-Nursery | No | 313 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:47 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 99.7% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 05:38 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 99.7% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:34 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 99.7% | $256 |
| Oct 24, 02:53 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 99.9% | $40 |
| Oct 24, 12:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.9% | $89 |
| Oct 24, 12:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 99.9% | $80 |
| Oct 24, 12:38 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.9% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:43 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 99.9% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 10:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 99.9% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 10:38 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.9% | $100 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 31°C at 99.9%. Next is 26°C or below at 0.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-october-24-2026?via=bro
$73.0K in total volume, with $51.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 24, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.
31°C, priced at 99.9% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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