Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 25?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 30°C at 48.5% in Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 25? — $9.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $7.8K.
Leading outcome
30°C
48%
A 48.5% price implies roughly a 48-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +13.5 pts
30°C48.5%
31°C30.0%
Bid
47¢
Ask
50¢
Spread
3¢
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Range since October 23, 2026: 35.0% – 49.0% · Opened at 35.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 25?
Category
Weather, Recurring, Hide From New, Daily Temperature, Hong Kong, Highest temperature
Scheduled end
October 25, 2026, 08:00 AM ET
Total volume
$9.8K
Volume (24h)
$7.8K
Liquidity
$9.6K
Markets
11
Leading outcome
30°C — 48.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 30°C, is priced at 48.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +13.5 pts.

Since October 23, 2026, 30°C has traded between 35.0% and 49.0%. It opened at 35.0% and last traded at 49.0%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

30°C is favored at 48.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
30°C48¢48.5%+13.5 pts$1.5K15.1%
31°C30¢30.0%-18.0 pts$1.8K18.3%
29°C18¢18.0%+12.0 pts$1.8K18.2%
32°C4¢3.5%-7.0 pts$1.3K13.1%
28°C2¢2.1%+1.5 pts$1.4K14.5%
33°C1¢0.9%+0.1 pts$5866.0%
27°C1¢0.7%+0.5 pts$4784.9%
35°C0¢0.1%-0.4 pts$3173.3%
26°C or below0¢0.1%—$1151.2%
34°C0¢0.1%-0.2 pts$4234.3%
36°C or higher0¢0.1%—$1151.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 47¢ / ask 50¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$9.8K has been traded on this event in total, $7.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,529 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No5,529$2.8K
Husky-GolfYes5,000$2.4K
Vast-ImpostorYes329$160
Round-Elbow-ChiefNo186$96
Dearest-FutonYes117$57
Pushy-Cake-LeadingNo113$58
Small-Fellow-MandolinNo111$57
Attractive-BarrageYes100$48
Vicious-Chalet-CelebrityYes89$43
Shrill-NetsukeYes85$41

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $99 at 53.3%BUY No — $99 at 86.0%BUY Yes — $50 at 50.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 08:11 PM ETYesBUY48.0%$10
Oct 24, 08:10 PM ETNoBUY84.0%$42
Oct 24, 08:08 PM ETNoBUY83.0%$1
Oct 24, 08:08 PM ETNoBUY71.0%$4
Oct 24, 08:08 PM ETYesBUY19.5%$2
Oct 24, 08:08 PM ETNoBUY53.0%$3
Oct 24, 08:06 PM ETYesBUY29.0%$3
Oct 24, 08:06 PM ETNoBUY71.0%$7
Oct 24, 07:53 PM ETYesBUY18.0%$1
Oct 24, 07:49 PM ETYesBUY29.8%$7

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 25??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 30°C at 48.5%. Next is 31°C at 30.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-october-25-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 25??

$9.8K in total volume, with $7.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.

When does Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 25? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 25?, according to Polymarket traders?

30°C, priced at 48.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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