Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Highest temperature in Paris on October 26?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 14°C at 49.5% in Highest temperature in Paris on October 26? — $2.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $2.9K.
Leading outcome
14°C
50%
A 49.5% price implies roughly a 50-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
14°C49.5%
15°C37.5%
Bid
47¢
Ask
52¢
Spread
5¢
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Market facts

Event data
Event
Highest temperature in Paris on October 26?
Category
Weather, Recurring, Hide From New, Paris, France, Daily Temperature, Highest temperature
Scheduled end
October 26, 2026, 08:00 AM ET
Total volume
$2.8K
Volume (24h)
$2.9K
Liquidity
$35.2K
Markets
11
Leading outcome
14°C — 49.5%
Resolution source
https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=LFPB&format=raw&date=2026-10-27T02:00:00Z&hours=30

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

14°C is favored at 49.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
14°C50¢49.5%—$73026.5%
15°C38¢37.5%—$68224.8%
13°C6¢6.5%—$2017.3%
16°C6¢5.5%—$32411.8%
17°C or higher2¢1.6%—$1324.8%
12°C2¢1.5%—$100.4%
11°C1¢0.9%—$00.0%
10°C1¢0.6%—$33012.0%
7°C or below0¢0.1%—$1154.2%
8°C0¢0.1%—$1154.2%
9°C0¢0.1%—$1154.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 47¢ / ask 52¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$2.8K has been traded on this event in total, $2.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Paris-Le Bourget Airport (LFPB) on 26 Oct '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Paris-Le Bourget Airport (LFPB) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=LFPB&format=raw&date=2026-10-27T02:00:00Z&hours=30

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 204 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0x65f7226a…Yes204$101
Corrupt-SubstanceYes104$52
Gleaming-HandlebarNo74$37
Fitting-Apparel-PoisonYes60$30
Awesome-Checkbook-HoseNo60$30
Unhealthy-Drive-OffsetNo56$28
Gorgeous-CriminalYes48$24
Happy-Go-Lucky-ApronYes44$22
Trusty-SlideNo39$20
Unlawful-BoneYes38$19

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $115 at 99.9%BUY No — $95 at 61.2%BUY Yes — $64 at 32.5%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:15 PM ETYesBUY47.9%$50
Oct 24, 06:15 PM ETNoBUY64.0%$3
Oct 24, 06:15 PM ETNoBUY99.9%$5
Oct 24, 06:06 PM ETYesSELL36.0%$0
Oct 24, 06:05 PM ETYesBUY39.0%$5
Oct 24, 06:04 PM ETYesBUY39.0%$6
Oct 24, 06:04 PM ETYesBUY38.0%$3
Oct 24, 06:04 PM ETYesBUY38.0%$1
Oct 24, 06:04 PM ETYesBUY38.0%$8
Oct 24, 06:04 PM ETYesBUY38.0%$8

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Highest temperature in Paris on October 26??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 14°C at 49.5%. Next is 15°C at 37.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-paris-on-october-26-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Highest temperature in Paris on October 26??

$2.8K in total volume, with $2.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.

When does Highest temperature in Paris on October 26? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 08:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=LFPB&format=raw&date=2026-10-27T02:00:00Z&hours=30.

What is the most likely outcome of Highest temperature in Paris on October 26?, according to Polymarket traders?

14°C, priced at 49.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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