As of October 24, 2026, 08:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4%+ at 99.8% in Highest third-place vote share in a 2026 Senate race? — $5.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 4%+, is priced at 99.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.8 pts; past week: +38.2 pts.
Since October 06, 2026, 4%+ has traded between 50.0% and 98.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 98.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 61.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.0% |
4%+ is favored at 99.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4%+ | 100¢ | 99.8% | +1.8 pts | $3.0K | 56.7% |
| 8%+ | 98¢ | 98.0% | +0.7 pts | $2.2K | 41.2% |
| 12%+ | 66¢ | 66.0% | -9.0 pts | $110 | 2.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 100¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$5.2K has been traded on this event in total, $181 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the vote share received by a third-place candidate in any of the 2026 U.S. Senate elections considered by this market is equal to or greater than the specified vote share. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The third-place candidate in each election is the candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in that election. Aggregated write-in or "scattering" totals that are not attributed to a single named candidate will not be considered a candidate. Elections with fewer than three candidates receiving votes have no third-place candidate. Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the relevant state in the election, or in the relevant round of the election as defined below. Vote shares will be considered unrounded. For elections that use ranked-choice voting or runoff elections, the relevant vote shares will be those of the first round. This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. This market will resolve based on the single highest third-place vote share across all such elections. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,045 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reckless-Estrogen-Competence | Yes | 1,045 | $1.0K |
| Belated-Glue | No | 223 | $1 |
| Tremendous-Divide | No | 214 | $1 |
| Writhing-Round | No | 120 | $0 |
| Small-Fellow-Mandolin | No | 120 | $0 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 88 | $0 |
| Delayed-Appetiser | Yes | 61 | $61 |
| Second-Hand-Neighborhood | No | 55 | $0 |
| Frail-Prayer | No | 43 | $0 |
| Advanced-Mailer | No | 32 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:43 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 97.9% | $20 |
| Oct 23, 11:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 10:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 09:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 2.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 10:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 53.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 04:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 2.1% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 09:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 98.0% | $171 |
| Oct 22, 09:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 2.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 08:09 PM ET | No | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 01:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 4.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4%+ at 99.8%. Next is 8%+ at 98.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/highest-third-place-vote-share-in-a-2026-senate-race?via=bro
$5.2K in total volume, with $181 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
4%+, priced at 99.8% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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