Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:12 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 58.5% in Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings? — $842 traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $100.
Leading outcome
No
58%
A 58.5% price implies roughly a 58-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +5.0 pts7D −6.5 pts
No58.5%
Yes41.5%
Bid
35¢
Ask
48¢
Spread
13¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 16, 2026: 25.0% – 68.5% · Opened at 25.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings?
Category
Finance, Earnings, Hide From New, Equities, HOG
Scheduled end
October 29, 2026, 09:00 AM ET
Total volume
$842
Volume (24h)
$100
Liquidity
$492
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 58.5%
Resolution source
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HOG/earnings

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 58.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +5.0 pts; past week: -6.5 pts.

Since October 16, 2026, No has traded between 25.0% and 68.5%. It opened at 25.0% and last traded at 57.0%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 58.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No58¢58.5%-5.0 pts$842100.0%
Yes42¢41.5%+5.0 pts$842100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 13¢ (bid 35¢ / ask 48¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$842 has been traded on this event in total, $100 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 09:00 AM ET.

As of market creation, Harley-Davidson is estimated to release earnings on October 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Harley-Davidson's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.48 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Harley-Davidson reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.48 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Harley-Davidson releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HOG/earnings

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 300 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Frosty-FundingYes300$124
Awesome-AvailabilityNo220$129
Giving-CriteriaNo152$89
Knowledgeable-ThousandYes90$37
Infatuated-NunNo70$41
Insidious-MeteorYes20$8
Charming-Kidney-ImaginationYes20$8
Whirlwind-CookingYes8$3
Plump-ImplementationYes5$2

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $67 at 34.0%BUY No — $60 at 27.2%BUY No — $35 at 70.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:32 PM ETYesBUY60.0%$30
Oct 24, 03:32 AM ETYesBUY40.0%$20
Oct 22, 09:19 PM ETYesBUY36.0%$18
Oct 22, 09:18 PM ETYesBUY36.0%$7
Oct 22, 09:18 PM ETYesBUY36.0%$32
Oct 20, 04:53 AM ETYesBUY34.0%$67
Oct 19, 03:00 PM ETNoBUY70.0%$35
Oct 19, 07:22 AM ETNoSELL66.0%$0
Oct 19, 04:27 AM ETNoBUY70.0%$1
Oct 19, 04:27 AM ETYesSELL31.0%$3

Related markets

More Finance

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 58.5%. Next is Yes at 41.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/hog-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-29-2026-0pt48?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings??

$842 in total volume, with $100 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 09:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HOG/earnings.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 58.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.