Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Houthi military action against Israel by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 11.5% in Houthi military action against Israel by...? — $331.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $771.
Leading outcome
December 31
12%
A 11.5% price implies roughly a 12-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −8.0 pts7D −11.5 pts
December 3111.5%
October 314.4%
Bid
11¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since September 30, 2026: 17.0% – 32.5% · Opened at 20.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Houthi military action against Israel by...?
Category
Iran, Yemen, Israel, Houthis, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$331.5K
Volume (24h)
$771
Liquidity
$28.1K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 11.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 11.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -8.0 pts; past week: -11.5 pts.

Since September 30, 2026, December 31 has traded between 17.0% and 32.5%. It opened at 20.5% and last traded at 31.5%.

DayClose
Oct 12, 202624.0%
Oct 13, 202624.0%
Oct 15, 202624.5%
Oct 16, 202624.5%
Oct 18, 202622.5%
Oct 19, 202622.5%
Oct 20, 202631.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 11.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3112¢11.5%-8.0 pts$78.4K23.7%
October 314¢4.4%+0.4 pts$10.0K3.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 12¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$331.5K has been traded on this event in total, $771 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Israel by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT, GMT+3). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Israeli ground territory. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israeli ground territory do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 604 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Buzzing-BeginnerNo604$534
Known-UseYes441$51
Silent-RowboatNo168$149
Queasy-AirshipNo159$141
Belated-GlueYes145$17
Relieved-RoadwayYes114$13
Wiggly-StemYes60$7
Direct-ChainstayYes47$5
Colorful-DuskNo40$35
Bossy-Birdcage-PeriodYes36$4

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $6.8K at 76.0%SELL No — $6.1K at 75.0%SELL No — $6.0K at 76.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:28 PM ETYesBUY11.0%$2
Oct 24, 05:04 PM ETYesSELL2.0%$0
Oct 24, 03:02 PM ETYesBUY6.9%$5
Oct 24, 12:03 PM ETYesSELL11.0%$2
Oct 24, 08:26 AM ETYesBUY14.0%$4
Oct 24, 08:16 AM ETNoBUY84.2%$508
Oct 24, 05:54 AM ETYesBUY20.0%$1
Oct 23, 02:55 PM ETYesSELL2.5%$2
Oct 23, 05:12 AM ETYesBUY20.0%$2
Oct 22, 05:13 PM ETYesBUY23.6%$5

Related markets

More Iran

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Houthi military action against Israel by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 11.5%. Next is October 31 at 4.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-military-action-against-israel-byptptpt-20260714210303206?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Houthi military action against Israel by...??

$331.5K in total volume, with $771 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Houthi military action against Israel by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Houthi military action against Israel by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 11.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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