As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 11.5% in Houthi military action against Israel by...? — $331.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 11.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -8.0 pts; past week: -11.5 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, December 31 has traded between 17.0% and 32.5%. It opened at 20.5% and last traded at 31.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 24.0% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 24.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 24.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 24.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 22.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 22.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 31.5% |
December 31 is favored at 11.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 12¢ | 11.5% | -8.0 pts | $78.4K | 23.7% |
| October 31 | 4¢ | 4.4% | +0.4 pts | $10.0K | 3.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 12¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$331.5K has been traded on this event in total, $771 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Israel by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT, GMT+3). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Israeli ground territory. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israeli ground territory do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 604 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buzzing-Beginner | No | 604 | $534 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 441 | $51 |
| Silent-Rowboat | No | 168 | $149 |
| Queasy-Airship | No | 159 | $141 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 145 | $17 |
| Relieved-Roadway | Yes | 114 | $13 |
| Wiggly-Stem | Yes | 60 | $7 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 47 | $5 |
| Colorful-Dusk | No | 40 | $35 |
| Bossy-Birdcage-Period | Yes | 36 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:04 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.9% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 12:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 08:26 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 08:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 84.2% | $508 |
| Oct 24, 05:54 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 02:55 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.5% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 05:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 05:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.6% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 11.5%. Next is October 31 at 4.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-military-action-against-israel-byptptpt-20260714210303206?via=bro
$331.5K in total volume, with $771 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 11.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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