As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price September 26 at 52.0% in Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...? — $122.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, September 26, is priced at 52.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +20.5 pts; past week: +3.5 pts; past month: +27.0 pts.
Since September 17, 2026, September 26 has traded between 7.0% and 75.5%. It opened at 44.0% and last traded at 31.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 17.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 45.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 31.5% |
September 26 is favored at 52.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 26 | 52¢ | 52.0% | +20.5 pts | $408 | 0.3% |
| September 22 | 50¢ | 49.5% | +5.5 pts | $667 | 0.5% |
| September 25 | 49¢ | 49.5% | — | $66 | 0.1% |
| September 18 | 41¢ | 41.0% | -1.5 pts | $503 | 0.4% |
| September 24 | 41¢ | 41.0% | — | $1.6K | 1.3% |
| September 28 | 37¢ | 37.0% | +5.5 pts | $1.4K | 1.2% |
| September 20 | 16¢ | 16.5% | — | $2.4K | 1.9% |
| September 27 | 13¢ | 13.0% | — | $546 | 0.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 82¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 93¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$122.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 176 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antique-Frame | No | 176 | $84 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 142 | $74 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | Yes | 50 | $26 |
| Worthless-Karate | No | 35 | $17 |
| Wicked-Flour | No | 30 | $14 |
| Grimy-Turnstile | Yes | 29 | $15 |
| These-Latency-Perspective | Yes | 20 | $10 |
| Absolute-Cockpit-Dungarees | Yes | 20 | $10 |
| Famous-Fleck | No | 20 | $10 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 08:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 08:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $19 |
| Oct 21, 08:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $53 |
| Oct 21, 08:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $3 |
| Oct 16, 03:01 AM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $17 |
| Oct 15, 07:42 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 07:42 AM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $18 |
| Oct 15, 12:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $16 |
| Oct 14, 11:21 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $10 |
| Oct 14, 11:19 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $18 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is September 26 at 52.0%. Next is September 22 at 49.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-military-action-against-saudi-arabia-on-20260916?via=bro
$122.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET.
September 26, priced at 52.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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