Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price September 26 at 52.0% in Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...? — $122.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
September 26
52%
A 52.0% price implies roughly a 52-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +20.5 pts7D +3.5 pts30D +27.0 pts
September 2652.0%
September 2249.5%
Bid
11¢
Ask
93¢
Spread
82¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 17, 2026: 7.0% – 75.5% · Opened at 44.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?
Category
Iran, Yemen, Houthis, Military, Geopolitics, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Scheduled end
September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET
Total volume
$122.9K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$324
Markets
8
Leading outcome
September 26 — 52.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, September 26, is priced at 52.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +20.5 pts; past week: +3.5 pts; past month: +27.0 pts.

Since September 17, 2026, September 26 has traded between 7.0% and 75.5%. It opened at 44.0% and last traded at 31.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202617.0%
Oct 16, 202616.5%
Oct 18, 202645.5%
Oct 19, 202652.5%
Oct 20, 202652.5%
Oct 22, 202640.0%
Oct 23, 202631.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

September 26 is favored at 52.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
September 2652¢52.0%+20.5 pts$4080.3%
September 2250¢49.5%+5.5 pts$6670.5%
September 2549¢49.5%—$660.1%
September 1841¢41.0%-1.5 pts$5030.4%
September 2441¢41.0%—$1.6K1.3%
September 2837¢37.0%+5.5 pts$1.4K1.2%
September 2016¢16.5%—$2.4K1.9%
September 2713¢13.0%—$5460.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 82¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 93¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$122.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 176 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Antique-FrameNo176$84
Belated-GlueYes142$74
Charming-Kidney-ImaginationYes50$26
Worthless-KarateNo35$17
Wicked-FlourNo30$14
Grimy-TurnstileYes29$15
These-Latency-PerspectiveYes20$10
Absolute-Cockpit-DungareesYes20$10
Famous-FleckNo20$10

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $114 at 86.0%BUY Yes — $100 at 64.0%BUY No — $77 at 86.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 21, 08:26 PM ETNoBUY94.0%$1
Oct 21, 08:26 PM ETNoBUY89.0%$19
Oct 21, 08:26 PM ETNoBUY89.0%$53
Oct 21, 08:26 PM ETNoBUY99.0%$3
Oct 16, 03:01 AM ETNoSELL86.0%$17
Oct 15, 07:42 AM ETNoBUY98.0%$1
Oct 15, 07:42 AM ETNoBUY84.0%$18
Oct 15, 12:01 AM ETNoBUY81.0%$16
Oct 14, 11:21 AM ETNoSELL94.0%$10
Oct 14, 11:19 AM ETNoBUY90.0%$18

Related markets

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is September 26 at 52.0%. Next is September 22 at 49.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-military-action-against-saudi-arabia-on-20260916?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...??

$122.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.

When does Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...? end?

The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 04:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?, according to Polymarket traders?

September 26, priced at 52.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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