As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 5 at 98.2% in Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...? — $134.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 5, is priced at 98.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.3 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, October 5 has traded between 28.0% and 98.5%. It opened at 28.0% and last traded at 98.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.2% |
October 5 is favored at 98.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 5 | 98¢ | 98.2% | — | $2.1K | 1.6% |
| October 4 | 92¢ | 91.5% | — | $2.5K | 1.9% |
| October 21 | 78¢ | 78.0% | -13.6 pts | $1.7K | 1.3% |
| October 18 | 64¢ | 63.7% | +3.8 pts | $935 | 0.7% |
| October 24 | 60¢ | 59.5% | -4.5 pts | $60 | 0.0% |
| October 27 | 48¢ | 48.5% | -9.0 pts | $65 | 0.0% |
| October 29 | 48¢ | 48.5% | -9.0 pts | $63 | 0.0% |
| October 28 | 48¢ | 48.0% | -9.5 pts | $66 | 0.0% |
| October 25 | 40¢ | 39.5% | +5.0 pts | $721 | 0.5% |
| October 31 | 39¢ | 39.0% | -14.5 pts | $70 | 0.1% |
| October 30 | 38¢ | 38.0% | -16.0 pts | $85 | 0.1% |
| October 26 | 34¢ | 34.5% | -23.0 pts | $216 | 0.2% |
| October 22 | 24¢ | 24.5% | -40.5 pts | $1.4K | 1.0% |
| October 2 | 16¢ | 16.5% | +2.5 pts | $2.7K | 2.0% |
| October 15 | 14¢ | 14.5% | +1.0 pts | $47.9K | 35.6% |
| October 23 | 14¢ | 14.5% | -40.5 pts | $337 | 0.3% |
| October 14 | 10¢ | 9.5% | +0.5 pts | $2.0K | 1.5% |
| October 19 | 4¢ | 4.2% | -12.2 pts | $1.5K | 1.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 97¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$134.4K has been traded on this event in total, $4.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 18 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 294 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blissful-Login | Yes | 294 | $289 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 216 | $4 |
| Unsightly-Cutover | Yes | 148 | $145 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 65 | $1 |
| Velvety-Patent | No | 60 | $1 |
| Wicked-Flour | No | 55 | $1 |
| Unhealthy-Drive-Offset | Yes | 20 | $20 |
| Awesome-Checkbook-Hose | No | 20 | $0 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 20 | $0 |
| Thankful-Ethernet | No | 16 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 9.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 9.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 12:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 12:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 9.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 06:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 06:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $9 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 5 at 98.2%. Next is October 4 at 91.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-military-action-against-saudi-arabia-on-october-2026?via=bro
$134.4K in total volume, with $4.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 18 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
October 5, priced at 98.2% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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