Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 5 at 98.2% in Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...? — $134.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $4.7K.
Leading outcome
October 5
98%
A 98.2% price implies roughly a 98-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −0.3 pts
October 598.2%
October 491.5%
Bid
97¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 01, 2026: 28.0% – 98.5% · Opened at 28.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?
Category
Iran, Yemen, Houthis, Military, Geopolitics, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$134.4K
Volume (24h)
$4.7K
Liquidity
$2.9K
Markets
18
Leading outcome
October 5 — 98.2%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 5, is priced at 98.2%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.3 pts.

Since October 01, 2026, October 5 has traded between 28.0% and 98.5%. It opened at 28.0% and last traded at 98.2%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202698.5%
Oct 18, 202698.5%
Oct 19, 202695.0%
Oct 20, 202695.2%
Oct 22, 202695.9%
Oct 23, 202698.2%
Oct 24, 202698.2%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 5 is favored at 98.2%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 598¢98.2%—$2.1K1.6%
October 492¢91.5%—$2.5K1.9%
October 2178¢78.0%-13.6 pts$1.7K1.3%
October 1864¢63.7%+3.8 pts$9350.7%
October 2460¢59.5%-4.5 pts$600.0%
October 2748¢48.5%-9.0 pts$650.0%
October 2948¢48.5%-9.0 pts$630.0%
October 2848¢48.0%-9.5 pts$660.0%
October 2540¢39.5%+5.0 pts$7210.5%
October 3139¢39.0%-14.5 pts$700.1%
October 3038¢38.0%-16.0 pts$850.1%
October 2634¢34.5%-23.0 pts$2160.2%
October 2224¢24.5%-40.5 pts$1.4K1.0%
October 216¢16.5%+2.5 pts$2.7K2.0%
October 1514¢14.5%+1.0 pts$47.9K35.6%
October 2314¢14.5%-40.5 pts$3370.3%
October 1410¢9.5%+0.5 pts$2.0K1.5%
October 194¢4.2%-12.2 pts$1.5K1.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 97¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$134.4K has been traded on this event in total, $4.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 18 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 294 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Blissful-LoginYes294$289
Belated-GlueNo216$4
Unsightly-CutoverYes148$145
Direct-ChainstayNo65$1
Velvety-PatentNo60$1
Wicked-FlourNo55$1
Unhealthy-Drive-OffsetYes20$20
Awesome-Checkbook-HoseNo20$0
Straight-WrinkleNo20$0
Thankful-EthernetNo16$0

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $166 at 83.0%SELL Yes — $151 at 92.0%BUY Yes — $95 at 86.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 01:08 PM ETNoBUY10.0%$2
Oct 24, 01:08 PM ETNoBUY9.0%$2
Oct 24, 01:00 PM ETNoBUY9.0%$2
Oct 24, 12:46 PM ETNoSELL84.0%$34
Oct 24, 12:46 PM ETYesBUY14.0%$3
Oct 24, 12:45 PM ETNoBUY10.0%$2
Oct 24, 12:45 PM ETNoBUY10.0%$2
Oct 24, 12:45 PM ETNoBUY9.0%$5
Oct 23, 06:07 PM ETYesBUY11.0%$2
Oct 23, 06:07 PM ETNoBUY90.0%$9

Related markets

More Iran

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 5 at 98.2%. Next is October 4 at 91.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-military-action-against-saudi-arabia-on-october-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...??

$134.4K in total volume, with $4.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 18 markets.

When does Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?, according to Polymarket traders?

October 5, priced at 98.2% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.