As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 45.0% in Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle) — $5.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 45.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, December 31 has traded between 45.0% and 46.5%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 45.0%.
December 31 is favored at 45.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 45¢ | 45.0% | -1.5 pts | $2.7K | 50.5% |
| November 30 | 24¢ | 24.5% | -8.0 pts | $1.4K | 26.3% |
| October 31 | 3¢ | 3.0% | -0.4 pts | $1.2K | 23.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 43¢ / ask 47¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$5.3K has been traded on this event in total, $997 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis capture Taiz, Yemen between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. The Houthis will be considered to have captured Taiz if the Houthis have established primary military control over Al-Qahira Castle (Cairo Castle) in Taiz city. The Houthis having established primary military control over an area of Taiz city encompassing Al-Qahira Castle will be sufficient, unless credible reporting indicates the castle itself remains outside Houthi control. Primary military control must be clearly demonstrated by this market’s resolution sources to qualify. Control which is credibly contested or disputed, or not clearly evidenced, will not qualify. Temporary raids, infiltration, isolated incursions, special operations, bombardment, shelling, sabotage, siege or encirclement of the city, or temporary disruption of government activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of capture will not qualify without actual control being established. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 731 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic-Sender | No | 731 | $402 |
| Innocent-Kid | Yes | 379 | $171 |
| Electric-Architect | No | 250 | $138 |
| 0x91c363ac… | Yes | 235 | $106 |
| Dapper-Baseball | Yes | 200 | $90 |
| Traumatic-Bakery | Yes | 95 | $43 |
| Electric-Condominium | Yes | 95 | $43 |
| Oval-Essential | No | 80 | $44 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 77 | $35 |
| Remarkable-Underpass | No | 77 | $42 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 44.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 76.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 43.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:18 PM ET | No | SELL | 77.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:16 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 43.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:15 PM ET | No | SELL | 78.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 43.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 05:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 83.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 05:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 11:06 AM ET | No | SELL | 55.7% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 45.0%. Next is November 30 at 24.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-capture-taiz-byptptpt-castle?via=bro
$5.3K in total volume, with $997 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 45.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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