Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)

As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 45.0% in Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle) — $5.3K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $997.
Leading outcome
December 31
45%
A 45.0% price implies roughly a 45-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −1.5 pts
December 3145.0%
November 3024.5%
Bid
43¢
Ask
47¢
Spread
4¢
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Range since October 23, 2026: 45.0% – 46.5% · Opened at 46.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)
Category
Iran, Yemen, Houthis, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Saudi Arabia
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$5.3K
Volume (24h)
$997
Liquidity
$55.0K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31 — 45.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 45.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts.

Since October 23, 2026, December 31 has traded between 45.0% and 46.5%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 45.0%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 45.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3145¢45.0%-1.5 pts$2.7K50.5%
November 3024¢24.5%-8.0 pts$1.4K26.3%
October 313¢3.0%-0.4 pts$1.2K23.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 43¢ / ask 47¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$5.3K has been traded on this event in total, $997 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis capture Taiz, Yemen between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. The Houthis will be considered to have captured Taiz if the Houthis have established primary military control over Al-Qahira Castle (Cairo Castle) in Taiz city. The Houthis having established primary military control over an area of Taiz city encompassing Al-Qahira Castle will be sufficient, unless credible reporting indicates the castle itself remains outside Houthi control. Primary military control must be clearly demonstrated by this market’s resolution sources to qualify. Control which is credibly contested or disputed, or not clearly evidenced, will not qualify. Temporary raids, infiltration, isolated incursions, special operations, bombardment, shelling, sabotage, siege or encirclement of the city, or temporary disruption of government activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of capture will not qualify without actual control being established. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 731 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Athletic-SenderNo731$402
Innocent-KidYes379$171
Electric-ArchitectNo250$138
0x91c363ac…Yes235$106
Dapper-BaseballYes200$90
Traumatic-BakeryYes95$43
Electric-CondominiumYes95$43
Oval-EssentialNo80$44
Belated-GlueYes77$35
Remarkable-UnderpassNo77$42

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $249 at 69.7%BUY No — $199 at 86.0%BUY Yes — $100 at 42.6%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:42 PM ETYesSELL44.0%$2
Oct 24, 05:42 PM ETNoSELL76.0%$4
Oct 24, 05:18 PM ETYesSELL43.0%$2
Oct 24, 05:18 PM ETNoSELL77.0%$4
Oct 24, 05:16 PM ETYesSELL43.0%$2
Oct 24, 05:15 PM ETNoSELL78.0%$4
Oct 24, 05:13 PM ETYesSELL43.0%$5
Oct 24, 05:13 PM ETNoSELL83.0%$10
Oct 24, 05:12 PM ETYesBUY21.0%$2
Oct 24, 11:06 AM ETNoSELL55.7%$11

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 45.0%. Next is November 30 at 24.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-capture-taiz-byptptpt-castle?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)?

$5.3K in total volume, with $997 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle) end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle), according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 45.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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