As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 22.5% in Houthis enter Aden by...? — $709.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 22.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -3.0 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.
Since September 10, 2026, December 31 has traded between 21.5% and 48.5%. It opened at 48.5% and last traded at 22.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 21.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 25.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 25.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 25.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 26.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 24.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 22.5% |
December 31 is favored at 22.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 22¢ | 22.5% | — | $227.2K | 32.0% |
| November 30 | 10¢ | 10.5% | +1.0 pts | $41.1K | 5.8% |
| October 31 | 1¢ | 1.4% | -0.1 pts | $256.8K | 36.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 22¢ / ask 23¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$709.7K has been traded on this event in total, $1.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,534 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gifted-Fraction | Yes | 4,534 | $1.0K |
| Near-Familiar | Yes | 4,238 | $954 |
| Well-Worn-Result | No | 4,000 | $3.1K |
| Splendid-Collection | Yes | 4,000 | $900 |
| Sudden-Automaton-Chronicle | No | 3,969 | $3.1K |
| Negligible-Last | Yes | 3,645 | $820 |
| Wilted-Burden-Survivor | No | 3,256 | $2.5K |
| Knotty-Leverage | No | 3,000 | $2.3K |
| Needy-Cenotaph | Yes | 2,500 | $563 |
| Organic-Joy | Yes | 2,404 | $541 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 10:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 10:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 10:39 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $238 |
| Oct 24, 10:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 07:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.2% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:00 AM ET | No | SELL | 77.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 04:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:22 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:22 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:22 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 22.5%. Next is November 30 at 10.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-enter-aden-byptptpt?via=bro
$709.7K in total volume, with $1.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 22.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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