Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Houthis enter Aden by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 22.5% in Houthis enter Aden by...? — $709.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.6K.
Leading outcome
December 31
22%
A 22.5% price implies roughly a 22-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −3.0 pts30D −6.0 pts
December 3122.5%
November 3010.5%
Bid
22¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since September 10, 2026: 21.5% – 48.5% · Opened at 48.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Houthis enter Aden by...?
Category
Oil, Iran, Yemen, Houthis, Politics, Geopolitics, Bab el-Mandeb
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$709.7K
Volume (24h)
$1.6K
Liquidity
$101.8K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31 — 22.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 22.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -3.0 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.

Since September 10, 2026, December 31 has traded between 21.5% and 48.5%. It opened at 48.5% and last traded at 22.5%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202621.5%
Oct 15, 202625.5%
Oct 16, 202625.5%
Oct 18, 202625.5%
Oct 19, 202626.5%
Oct 20, 202624.5%
Oct 24, 202622.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 22.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3122¢22.5%—$227.2K32.0%
November 3010¢10.5%+1.0 pts$41.1K5.8%
October 311¢1.4%-0.1 pts$256.8K36.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 22¢ / ask 23¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$709.7K has been traded on this event in total, $1.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,534 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Gifted-FractionYes4,534$1.0K
Near-FamiliarYes4,238$954
Well-Worn-ResultNo4,000$3.1K
Splendid-CollectionYes4,000$900
Sudden-Automaton-ChronicleNo3,969$3.1K
Negligible-LastYes3,645$820
Wilted-Burden-SurvivorNo3,256$2.5K
Knotty-LeverageNo3,000$2.3K
Needy-CenotaphYes2,500$563
Organic-JoyYes2,404$541

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $2.3K at 98.2%SELL No — $1.2K at 98.6%BUY No — $922 at 91.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 10:39 AM ETYesBUY11.0%$2
Oct 24, 10:39 AM ETYesBUY11.0%$7
Oct 24, 10:39 AM ETNoSELL90.0%$238
Oct 24, 10:39 AM ETYesBUY11.0%$3
Oct 24, 07:27 AM ETYesSELL1.2%$1
Oct 24, 06:00 AM ETNoSELL77.0%$20
Oct 24, 04:22 AM ETYesBUY9.0%$4
Oct 24, 04:22 AM ETYesSELL8.0%$1
Oct 24, 04:22 AM ETYesSELL9.0%$3
Oct 24, 04:22 AM ETYesSELL9.0%$4

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Houthis enter Aden by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 22.5%. Next is November 30 at 10.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-enter-aden-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Houthis enter Aden by...??

$709.7K in total volume, with $1.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Houthis enter Aden by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Houthis enter Aden by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 22.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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