Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 5.5% in Houthis seize an oil tanker by...? — $145.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $51.
Leading outcome
October 31
6%
A 5.5% price implies roughly a 6-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −0.5 pts30D −15.0 pts
Bid
5¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 16, 2026: 5.5% – 52.0% · Opened at 50.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?
Category
Oil, Iran, ship, Yemen, Houthis, oil ship, Geopolitics, Middle East
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$145.5K
Volume (24h)
$51
Liquidity
$11.1K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
October 31 — 5.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 5.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -15.0 pts.

Since September 16, 2026, October 31 has traded between 5.5% and 52.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 5.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 20266.5%
Oct 16, 20265.5%
Oct 18, 20266.0%
Oct 19, 20266.0%
Oct 20, 20267.0%
Oct 23, 20265.5%
Oct 24, 20265.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 31 is favored at 5.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 316¢5.5%—$36.8K25.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$145.5K has been traded on this event in total, $51 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces seize control of an oil tanker or a commercial vessel transporting oil as cargo between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. Seize control refers to Houthi forces taking custody of or asserting operational control over a commercial ship, including boarding and taking control of the ship, holding or detaining it for an indefinite period, or forcefully rerouting it to a location selected or controlled by the perpetrators. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Once a qualifying seizure has occured, any subsequent abandonment, release, rescue, recapture, or other loss of control will not affect the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes or any other form of kinetic attack not resulting in the seizure of the targeted ship will not be considered, regardless of any damage that occurs. A qualifying seizure must be attributed to Houthi forces. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying seizure will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,106 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Genuine-SegmentNo1,106$1.0K
Glistening-NamingYes620$34
Limp-DrawerYes604$33
Calm-DuskNo600$567
Small-PompomNo543$513
Capital-SariYes424$23
Belated-GlueYes238$13
Sizzling-PatienceYes125$7
Untimely-MoodYes119$7
Cheerful-EphemeraNo111$105

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $153 at 94.0%BUY No — $104 at 94.0%BUY No — $53 at 93.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:35 AM ETNoBUY96.0%$30
Oct 24, 07:29 AM ETYesSELL4.5%$1
Oct 23, 06:24 PM ETNoBUY95.0%$10
Oct 23, 06:54 AM ETYesBUY6.0%$1
Oct 23, 05:12 AM ETYesBUY6.0%$4
Oct 23, 02:17 AM ETYesSELL4.0%$1
Oct 23, 02:17 AM ETYesSELL4.4%$23
Oct 22, 11:19 PM ETYesBUY6.0%$4
Oct 22, 09:01 AM ETNoBUY94.0%$104
Oct 19, 03:57 PM ETNoBUY95.0%$10

Related markets

More Oil

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Houthis seize an oil tanker by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 5.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-seize-an-oil-tanker-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Houthis seize an oil tanker by...??

$145.5K in total volume, with $51 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Houthis seize an oil tanker by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

October 31, priced at 5.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.