As of October 24, 2026, 07:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 5.5% in Houthis seize an oil tanker by...? — $145.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 5.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -15.0 pts.
Since September 16, 2026, October 31 has traded between 5.5% and 52.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 5.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 7.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 5.5% |
October 31 is favored at 5.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $36.8K | 25.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$145.5K has been traded on this event in total, $51 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces seize control of an oil tanker or a commercial vessel transporting oil as cargo between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. Seize control refers to Houthi forces taking custody of or asserting operational control over a commercial ship, including boarding and taking control of the ship, holding or detaining it for an indefinite period, or forcefully rerouting it to a location selected or controlled by the perpetrators. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Once a qualifying seizure has occured, any subsequent abandonment, release, rescue, recapture, or other loss of control will not affect the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes or any other form of kinetic attack not resulting in the seizure of the targeted ship will not be considered, regardless of any damage that occurs. A qualifying seizure must be attributed to Houthi forces. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying seizure will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,106 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genuine-Segment | No | 1,106 | $1.0K |
| Glistening-Naming | Yes | 620 | $34 |
| Limp-Drawer | Yes | 604 | $33 |
| Calm-Dusk | No | 600 | $567 |
| Small-Pompom | No | 543 | $513 |
| Capital-Sari | Yes | 424 | $23 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 238 | $13 |
| Sizzling-Patience | Yes | 125 | $7 |
| Untimely-Mood | Yes | 119 | $7 |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 111 | $105 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 07:29 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.5% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 06:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 06:54 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 05:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 02:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 02:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.4% | $23 |
| Oct 22, 11:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 09:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $104 |
| Oct 19, 03:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 5.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-seize-an-oil-tanker-by?via=bro
$145.5K in total volume, with $51 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
October 31, priced at 5.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.