As of October 24, 2026, 06:31 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4.80% at 88.0% in How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027? — $26.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 4.80%, is priced at 88.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +22.0 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, 4.80% has traded between 68.5% and 85.0%. It opened at 68.5% and last traded at 85.0%.
4.80% is favored at 88.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.80% | 88¢ | 88.0% | +22.0 pts | $1.8K | 6.7% |
| 4.75% | 88¢ | 87.5% | +8.0 pts | $768 | 2.9% |
| 4.90% | 79¢ | 79.0% | +15.5 pts | $4.4K | 17.0% |
| 4.85% | 74¢ | 73.5% | +7.5 pts | $954 | 3.6% |
| 5.00% | 41¢ | 41.0% | -1.5 pts | $1.9K | 7.3% |
| 5.10% | 34¢ | 34.5% | +0.5 pts | $2.5K | 9.4% |
| 5.20% | 20¢ | 19.5% | -0.5 pts | $1.4K | 5.5% |
| 5.30% | 10¢ | 10.0% | +1.0 pts | $3.3K | 12.5% |
| 5.50% | 4¢ | 4.5% | +0.5 pts | $5.1K | 19.5% |
| 5.40% | 4¢ | 4.0% | +0.7 pts | $2.9K | 11.3% |
| 5.65% | 4¢ | 4.0% | +1.2 pts | $1.1K | 4.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 85¢ / ask 91¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$26.2K has been traded on this event in total, $2.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the final business day of 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the final business day of 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Resolution source: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 300 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unselfish-Bonus | No | 300 | $36 |
| Tremendous-Mail | Yes | 291 | $256 |
| Roasted-Eyeglasses | No | 208 | $25 |
| NoSteinNoGate | Yes | 151 | $133 |
| Bright-Charge-Guacamole | Yes | 146 | $128 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 55 | $7 |
| Good-Gram-Prostacyclin | No | 50 | $6 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 40 | $35 |
| Bite-Sized-Programme | Yes | 20 | $18 |
| Mixed-Morsel-Embossing | Yes | 20 | $18 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 85.5% | $51 |
| Oct 24, 10:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.3% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 09:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.7% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 09:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 09:30 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.8% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 07:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 07:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 03:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $92 |
| Oct 23, 11:50 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.6% | $96 |
| Oct 23, 05:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 63.0% | $14 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4.80% at 88.0%. Next is 4.75% at 87.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-2-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027?via=bro
$26.2K in total volume, with $2.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026.
4.80%, priced at 88.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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