As of October 24, 2026, 06:37 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4.89% at 30.5% in How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October? — $18.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 4.89%, is priced at 30.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +17.5 pts; past week: +3.5 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, 4.89% has traded between 19.0% and 77.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 19.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 44.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 27.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 33.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 33.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 19.0% |
4.89% is favored at 30.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.89% | 30¢ | 30.5% | +17.5 pts | $1.9K | 10.7% |
| 4.86% | 18¢ | 17.5% | +1.0 pts | $1.8K | 10.0% |
| 5.15% | 7¢ | 7.1% | — | $1.5K | 8.4% |
| 5.00% | 6¢ | 6.5% | +2.5 pts | $2.2K | 11.8% |
| 4.95% | 6¢ | 5.5% | +0.5 pts | $3.2K | 17.3% |
| 4.92% | 5¢ | 5.0% | +1.0 pts | $3.0K | 16.5% |
| 5.10% | 4¢ | 3.5% | -1.2 pts | $1.2K | 6.7% |
| 5.25% | 4¢ | 3.5% | -11.6 pts | $1.7K | 9.4% |
| 5.05% | 3¢ | 3.2% | -0.1 pts | $1.7K | 9.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 55¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 58¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$18.2K has been traded on this event in total, $565 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 194 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 194 | $59 |
| NoSteinNoGate | No | 184 | $128 |
| Winding-Hutch-Nudge | No | 171 | $119 |
| Bite-Sized-Programme | Yes | 130 | $40 |
| Required-Horn | No | 80 | $56 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 69 | $21 |
| Infatuated-Nun | Yes | 55 | $17 |
| Bright-Charge-Guacamole | No | 54 | $38 |
| Unfortunate-Particle | No | 48 | $33 |
| Faraway-Chive-Cheese | No | 25 | $17 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 10:51 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 10:21 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 10:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 10:20 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:20 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 10:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 10:20 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $19 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4.89% at 30.5%. Next is 4.86% at 17.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-2-year-treasury-yield-go-in-october?via=bro
$18.2K in total volume, with $565 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
4.89%, priced at 30.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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