As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 5.40% at 73.5% in How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027? — $264.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 5.40%, is priced at 73.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, 5.40% has traded between 73.5% and 74.0%. It opened at 74.0% and last traded at 73.5%.
5.40% is favored at 73.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.40% | 74¢ | 73.5% | -0.5 pts | $312 | 0.1% |
| 5.50% | 58¢ | 58.0% | +10.0 pts | $232 | 0.1% |
| 5.60% | 47¢ | 47.0% | +2.0 pts | $320 | 0.1% |
| 5.70% | 40¢ | 39.5% | +2.5 pts | $48.4K | 18.3% |
| 5.80% | 16¢ | 16.1% | -1.0 pts | $48.1K | 18.2% |
| 5.90% | 10¢ | 9.5% | +1.0 pts | $33.7K | 12.8% |
| 6.00% | 6¢ | 5.5% | +0.2 pts | $54.4K | 20.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 72¢ / ask 75¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$264.1K has been traded on this event in total, $1.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 07:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Resolution source: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 153 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 153 | $41 |
| Unwritten-Hybridization | Yes | 73 | $54 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 40 | $29 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 20 | $15 |
| Bite-Sized-Programme | Yes | 20 | $15 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.6% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 03:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 40.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 03:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.9% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 10:59 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.1% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 10:24 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.6% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 10:04 AM ET | No | SELL | 60.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 12:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 60.0% | $60 |
| Oct 24, 12:55 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 40.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 12:55 AM ET | No | SELL | 61.9% | $62 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 5.40% at 73.5%. Next is 5.50% at 58.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-30-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027?via=bro
$264.1K in total volume, with $1.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 07:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026.
5.40%, priced at 73.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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