As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Above 4.5% at 14.5% in How high will inflation get in 2026? — $1.50M traded so far.
The leading outcome, Above 4.5%, is priced at 14.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past month: -2.0 pts.
Since May 12, 2026, Above 4.5% has traded between 10.5% and 83.5%. It opened at 63.5% and last traded at 15.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 15.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 15.0% |
Above 4.5% is favored at 14.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.5% | 14¢ | 14.5% | -0.5 pts | $235.1K | 15.7% |
| Above 5% | 8¢ | 8.5% | — | $342.1K | 22.8% |
| Above 6% | 4¢ | 3.5% | +0.1 pts | $70.1K | 4.7% |
| Above 8% | 3¢ | 3.1% | -0.1 pts | $42.1K | 2.8% |
| Above 10% | 2¢ | 2.4% | -0.1 pts | $60.2K | 4.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 14¢ / ask 15¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.50M has been traded on this event in total, $1.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolution source: https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 46,395 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hideous-Racer | No | 46,395 | $39.7K |
| Unconscious-Airbag | Yes | 30,000 | $4.3K |
| Capital-Endoderm | Yes | 15,364 | $2.2K |
| Defensive-Plunger | No | 13,359 | $11.4K |
| Trained-App | Yes | 11,531 | $1.7K |
| Scornful-Software | No | 10,262 | $8.8K |
| Old-Breath | Yes | 9,209 | $1.3K |
| Ajar-Lunge | Yes | 7,480 | $1.1K |
| Crisp-Scarf | No | 6,134 | $5.2K |
| Similar-Nation | No | 4,953 | $4.2K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $70 |
| Oct 23, 07:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 07:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 05:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 04:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 01:40 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 01:40 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 10:41 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $70 |
| Oct 23, 10:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $150 |
| Oct 23, 10:16 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Above 4.5% at 14.5%. Next is Above 5% at 8.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2026?via=bro
$1.50M in total volume, with $1.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm.
Above 4.5%, priced at 14.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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