As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↑ 47% at 14.7% in How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026? — $9.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↑ 47%, is priced at 14.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: +1.4 pts; past month: +8.2 pts.
Since December 12, 2025, ↑ 47% has traded between 1.1% and 50.0%. It opened at 16.8% and last traded at 14.6%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 10.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 11.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 14.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 14.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 14.6% |
↑ 47% is favored at 14.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 47% | 15¢ | 14.7% | +0.1 pts | $480 | 5.2% |
| ↑ 46% | 10¢ | 9.6% | +0.2 pts | $1.3K | 14.7% |
| ↑ 48% | 6¢ | 6.5% | +0.2 pts | $792 | 8.6% |
| ↑ 45% | 6¢ | 5.7% | -3.0 pts | $433 | 4.7% |
| ↑ 44% | 6¢ | 5.5% | +1.1 pts | $3.8K | 41.3% |
| ↑ 49% | 4¢ | 3.7% | — | $749 | 8.2% |
| ↑ 50% | 3¢ | 2.9% | +0.2 pts | $1.6K | 17.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 27¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 28¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.2K has been traded on this event in total, $29 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Resolution source: https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 92 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 92 | $14 |
| Common-Nitrogen | No | 72 | $62 |
| Black-And-White-Insert | No | 45 | $38 |
| 0xa4babbe6… | No | 20 | $17 |
| Squiggly-Waiting | Yes | 14 | $2 |
| Hefty-Conga | Yes | 10 | $1 |
| Euphoric-Snowplow | Yes | 7 | $1 |
| Original-Cross | Yes | 6 | $1 |
| Sharp-Landform | Yes | 4 | $1 |
| Gleeful-Comedy | Yes | 4 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 03:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $92 |
| Oct 23, 03:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $114 |
| Oct 23, 09:48 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.7% | $10 |
| Oct 20, 06:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $198 |
| Oct 20, 05:22 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.9% | $30 |
| Oct 20, 05:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.8% | $61 |
| Oct 20, 05:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.8% | $16 |
| Oct 19, 11:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.2% | $4 |
| Oct 10, 01:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.8% | $0 |
| Oct 05, 02:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.4% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↑ 47% at 14.7%. Next is ↑ 46% at 9.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-2026?via=bro
$9.2K in total volume, with $29 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 12:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin.
↑ 47%, priced at 14.7% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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