As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Below 4.9% at 76.0% in How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? — $434.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Below 4.9%, is priced at 76.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts.
Since October 22, 2026, Below 4.9% has traded between 78.5% and 81.0%. It opened at 81.0% and last traded at 80.5%.
Below 4.9% is favored at 76.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.9% | 76¢ | 76.0% | -2.5 pts | $217 | 0.0% |
| Below 4.8% | 72¢ | 71.5% | +8.0 pts | $400 | 0.1% |
| Below 4.7% | 38¢ | 37.5% | -1.0 pts | $21.1K | 4.9% |
| Below 4.6% | 20¢ | 20.5% | — | $32.9K | 7.6% |
| Below 4.5% | 13¢ | 13.0% | -0.1 pts | $21.2K | 4.9% |
| Below 4.3% | 9¢ | 8.7% | +0.7 pts | $8.4K | 1.9% |
| Below 4.4% | 8¢ | 8.0% | +0.5 pts | $27.5K | 6.3% |
| Below 4.2% | 4¢ | 4.2% | +0.1 pts | $7.0K | 1.6% |
| Below 3.9% | 3¢ | 3.4% | +0.2 pts | $57.3K | 13.2% |
| Below 4.1% | 3¢ | 3.2% | -0.8 pts | $12.6K | 2.9% |
| Below 3.8% | 2¢ | 2.4% | +0.4 pts | $65.5K | 15.1% |
| Below 2.0% | 2¢ | 1.9% | -0.4 pts | $5.1K | 1.2% |
| Below 3.0% | 2¢ | 1.8% | — | $8.0K | 1.8% |
| Below 3.6% | 2¢ | 1.7% | -0.4 pts | $12.5K | 2.9% |
| Below 1.0% | 1¢ | 1.5% | — | $40.8K | 9.4% |
| Below 3.7% | 1¢ | 1.5% | -0.2 pts | $38.3K | 8.8% |
| Below 3.5% | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $43.7K | 10.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 26¢ (bid 63¢ / ask 89¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$434.3K has been traded on this event in total, $2.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 17 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Resolution source: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 80 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 80 | $61 |
| Bite-Sized-Programme | No | 63 | $15 |
| Bowed-Wall | No | 17 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.2% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.8% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 11:14 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $116 |
| Oct 23, 09:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $49 |
| Oct 15, 03:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $7 |
| Oct 15, 08:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.6% | $3 |
| Oct 15, 06:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.4% | $2 |
| Oct 12, 05:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.8% | $1 |
| Oct 09, 08:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.9% | $3 |
| Oct 09, 05:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.9% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Below 4.9% at 76.0%. Next is Below 4.8% at 71.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027?via=bro
$434.3K in total volume, with $2.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 17 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025.
Below 4.9%, priced at 76.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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