As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Below 4.95% at 43.5% in How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October? — $34.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Below 4.95%, is priced at 43.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -18.5 pts; past week: +8.5 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, Below 4.95% has traded between 4.0% and 65.5%. It opened at 11.5% and last traded at 57.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 24.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 35.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 32.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 12.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 57.5% |
Below 4.95% is favored at 43.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.95% | 44¢ | 43.5% | -18.5 pts | $2.9K | 8.5% |
| Below 4.90% | 28¢ | 28.0% | -6.2 pts | $5.3K | 15.5% |
| Below 4.85% | 13¢ | 12.8% | -6.4 pts | $2.3K | 6.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 35¢ (bid 26¢ / ask 61¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$34.2K has been traded on this event in total, $797 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 800 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large-Cartoon | Yes | 800 | $348 |
| Good-Natured-Angora | No | 679 | $384 |
| Spicy-Quince | No | 120 | $68 |
| Attentive-Crewman | No | 95 | $54 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 64 | $28 |
| Each-Summary | Yes | 60 | $26 |
| Bite-Sized-Programme | No | 57 | $32 |
| Crushing-Charge | No | 50 | $28 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 49 | $21 |
| NoSteinNoGate | No | 40 | $23 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 73.2% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 12:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.8% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:48 AM ET | No | BUY | 66.2% | $26 |
| Oct 24, 09:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 40.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 08:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 32.0% | $202 |
| Oct 24, 07:47 AM ET | No | BUY | 66.9% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 06:25 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 32.1% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:27 AM ET | No | BUY | 41.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 02:27 AM ET | No | BUY | 40.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 05:08 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $12 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Below 4.95% at 43.5%. Next is Below 4.90% at 28.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october?via=bro
$34.2K in total volume, with $797 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Below 4.95%, priced at 43.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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