As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Below 4.60% at 71.5% in How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027? — $24.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Below 4.60%, is priced at 71.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -7.5 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, Below 4.60% has traded between 46.0% and 77.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 71.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 77.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 73.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 76.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 71.5% |
Below 4.60% is favored at 71.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.60% | 72¢ | 71.5% | — | $3.8K | 15.5% |
| Below 4.50% | 57¢ | 57.5% | +3.5 pts | $3.7K | 15.0% |
| Below 4.40% | 50¢ | 50.5% | +5.5 pts | $2.6K | 10.7% |
| Below 4.30% | 26¢ | 25.5% | +8.5 pts | $2.7K | 11.1% |
| Below 4.20% | 18¢ | 18.5% | +1.0 pts | $1.4K | 5.7% |
| Below 4.10% | 16¢ | 16.0% | +2.0 pts | $2.2K | 8.9% |
| Below 4.00% | 9¢ | 9.3% | — | $2.0K | 8.1% |
| Below 3.90% | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $360 | 1.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 70¢ / ask 73¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$24.5K has been traded on this event in total, $1.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the final business day of 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the final business day of 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 337 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teeming-Puppet | No | 337 | $96 |
| Winding-Hutch-Nudge | No | 325 | $93 |
| NoSteinNoGate | Yes | 184 | $131 |
| Oval-Essential | Yes | 100 | $72 |
| Immaculate-Baseboard-Fries | No | 100 | $28 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 95 | $68 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 83 | $60 |
| Suburban-Fiber | Yes | 60 | $43 |
| Required-Horn | No | 60 | $17 |
| Prudent-Realization-Farrow | Yes | 59 | $42 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 49.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 06:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 49.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 05:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 42.0% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 01:58 PM ET | No | SELL | 77.8% | $140 |
| Oct 24, 01:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 11:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 11:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 11:31 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 11:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 11:25 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Below 4.60% at 71.5%. Next is Below 4.50% at 57.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-2-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027?via=bro
$24.5K in total volume, with $1.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Below 4.60%, priced at 71.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.