As of October 24, 2026, 08:11 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1,028–1,033 ft at 48.4% in How low will Lake Mead drop? — $23.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1,028–1,033 ft, is priced at 48.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.3 pts; past week: -5.7 pts; past month: +4.0 pts.
Since August 17, 2026, 1,028–1,033 ft has traded between 11.4% and 56.5%. It opened at 49.0% and last traded at 48.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 51.3% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 54.1% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 53.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 50.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 49.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 51.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 48.1% |
1,028–1,033 ft is favored at 48.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,028–1,033 ft | 48¢ | 48.4% | +0.3 pts | $6.2K | 26.5% |
| Below 1,028 ft | 42¢ | 42.5% | -3.5 pts | $10.5K | 44.8% |
| 1,033–1,038 ft | 15¢ | 15.4% | -0.2 pts | $2.2K | 9.5% |
| Above 1,038 ft | 6¢ | 5.7% | — | $4.5K | 19.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 53¢ (bid 22¢ / ask 75¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$23.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end April 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,033.00 feet but does not fall below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 993 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 993 | $512 |
| Intentional-Engagement | Yes | 861 | $417 |
| Teeming-Puppet | No | 425 | $219 |
| Powerful-Waste | Yes | 360 | $174 |
| Velvety-Burn | Yes | 117 | $57 |
| Required-Horn | No | 78 | $40 |
| 0x974a67ef… | Yes | 51 | $25 |
| Automatic-Cappuccino | Yes | 50 | $24 |
| Scary-Neck-Vascular | Yes | 50 | $24 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 38 | $20 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 07:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 45.8% | $35 |
| Oct 13, 12:22 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 43.0% | $6 |
| Oct 13, 12:16 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 44.0% | $24 |
| Oct 09, 04:33 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 44.0% | $24 |
| Oct 09, 02:41 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 44.5% | $1 |
| Oct 09, 02:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 44.6% | $1 |
| Oct 06, 07:57 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $25 |
| Oct 02, 11:12 AM ET | No | SELL | 55.4% | $12 |
| Sep 30, 12:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 44.0% | $1 |
| Sep 28, 12:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1,028–1,033 ft at 48.4%. Next is Below 1,028 ft at 42.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-mead-drop-1786981653904?via=bro
$23.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end April 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123.
1,028–1,033 ft, priced at 48.4% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.