As of October 24, 2026, 07:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Above 3,510 ft at 85.5% in How low will Lake Powell drop? — $69.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Above 3,510 ft, is priced at 85.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -10.0 pts; past month: +31.0 pts.
Since August 17, 2026, Above 3,510 ft has traded between 10.5% and 95.5%. It opened at 13.0% and last traded at 85.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 85.5% |
Above 3,510 ft is favored at 85.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3,510 ft | 86¢ | 85.5% | -0.5 pts | $24.6K | 35.7% |
| 3,500–3,510 ft | 8¢ | 7.5% | +2.0 pts | $35.1K | 50.8% |
| Below 3,490 ft | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $4.3K | 6.2% |
| 3,490–3,500 ft | 0¢ | 0.3% | -0.4 pts | $5.0K | 7.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 85¢ / ask 86¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$69.1K has been traded on this event in total, $513 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end April 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 3,510.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,802 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 3,802 | $551 |
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 1,877 | $1.6K |
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 1,146 | $979 |
| Intentional-Engagement | Yes | 607 | $519 |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 403 | $344 |
| Powerful-Waste | Yes | 322 | $275 |
| Serious-Authority | No | 180 | $26 |
| Required-Tactics | Yes | 175 | $150 |
| Evil-Row | No | 173 | $25 |
| Elated-Conspirator-Copying | No | 140 | $20 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:40 PM ET | No | SELL | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $71 |
| Oct 24, 12:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.5% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 12:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 03:08 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 01:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:40 PM ET | No | SELL | 13.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 15.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 01:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 01:24 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Above 3,510 ft at 85.5%. Next is 3,500–3,510 ft at 7.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-lake-powell-drop-1786980780361?via=bro
$69.1K in total volume, with $513 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end April 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508.
Above 3,510 ft, priced at 85.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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