As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 36% at 72.0% in How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026? — $171.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 36%, is priced at 72.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -8.0 pts; past week: +8.5 pts; past month: +3.5 pts.
Since September 21, 2026, 36% has traded between 45.0% and 80.0%. It opened at 45.0% and last traded at 80.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 64.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 68.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 80.0% |
36% is favored at 72.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36% | 72¢ | 72.0% | -8.0 pts | $3.3K | 1.9% |
| 35% | 26¢ | 26.0% | -3.0 pts | $120.9K | 70.3% |
| 34% | 17¢ | 17.0% | +3.0 pts | $652 | 0.4% |
| 30% | 5¢ | 5.0% | -0.5 pts | $17.2K | 10.0% |
| 25% | 4¢ | 3.5% | +0.1 pts | $4.5K | 2.6% |
| 20% | 3¢ | 3.0% | +0.1 pts | $3.4K | 2.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 18¢ (bid 63¢ / ask 81¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$171.9K has been traded on this event in total, $458 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Resolution source: https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,437 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuddly-Ozone | Yes | 2,437 | $1.8K |
| Optimal-Miss | No | 2,000 | $560 |
| Ajar-Sportsman | No | 681 | $191 |
| Miserly-Editing | Yes | 390 | $281 |
| Capital-Eviction | No | 280 | $78 |
| Positive-Negligee | Yes | 180 | $130 |
| Elaborate-Formamide | Yes | 73 | $53 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 70 | $20 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | No | 60 | $17 |
| Gaseous-Tennis | Yes | 51 | $37 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 06:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 73.0% | $36 |
| Oct 24, 11:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.1% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 02:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 69.0% | $22 |
| Oct 23, 06:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.9% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 04:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 04:49 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $54 |
| Oct 22, 04:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 69.0% | $383 |
| Oct 22, 12:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 08:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 69.0% | $71 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 36% at 72.0%. Next is 35% at 26.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-2026?via=bro
$171.9K in total volume, with $458 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 12:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin.
36%, priced at 72.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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