As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ≤6 at 27.5% in How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 26 - November 1? — $872 traded so far.
The leading outcome, ≤6, is priced at 27.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts.
≤6 is favored at 27.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤6 | 28¢ | 27.5% | -1.0 pts | $389 | 44.6% |
| more than 13 | 14¢ | 14.0% | +5.0 pts | $220 | 25.2% |
| 8 | 13¢ | 13.0% | — | $10 | 1.1% |
| 7 | 12¢ | 12.5% | — | $38 | 4.3% |
| 9 | 12¢ | 12.0% | -0.5 pts | $20 | 2.3% |
| 10 | 11¢ | 11.0% | +1.0 pts | $30 | 3.4% |
| 11 | 10¢ | 9.5% | — | $96 | 11.0% |
| 13 | 9¢ | 9.0% | +3.5 pts | $10 | 1.1% |
| 12 | 8¢ | 7.5% | +1.0 pts | $60 | 6.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 26¢ / ask 29¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$872 has been traded on this event in total, $752 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 26, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Resolution source: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 93 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fat-Embellishment | No | 93 | $67 |
| Feline-Suitcase | Yes | 54 | $15 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 53 | $14 |
| Judicious-Lunchmeat | Yes | 40 | $11 |
| Embarrassed-Hill-Fold | No | 20 | $14 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | No | 14 | $10 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 10 | $7 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 10 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 05:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 05:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 04:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 12:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 12:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 07:48 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 06:45 AM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $69 |
| Oct 24, 05:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $75 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is ≤6 at 27.5%. Next is more than 13 at 14.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-worldwide-october-26-november-1?via=bro
$872 in total volume, with $752 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
≤6, priced at 27.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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